橡胶周报：产能收紧，重心有望提高-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflection point of the large - cycle of supply has arrived. The downward limit of rubber prices is raised by inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle. With the support of interest - rate cuts on demand, policies and replacement cycles being favorable for heavy - truck demand, and real estate being the main drag, it is anticipated that the center of gravity of rubber prices will increase. It is recommended to buy rubber at an appropriate time, with the running range of ru referring to 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on ru and short on nr is suggested [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - The real - estate market has normal expectations but needs to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend of anti - involution. Externally, the Fed's interest - rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effect of a possible US recession should be guarded against. The US plans to increase its GDP to 40 trillion US dollars by 2030, implying an annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, and inflation will provide support [6]. Supply - The large - cycle inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to fall. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level from 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to inactivity or reluctance to sell. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the current weakness. The enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable at present. The phenology of natural - rubber producing areas this year is average, with more rainfall and floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm, while the processing sector is in the red. The global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber, with the substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber approaching its peak [6]. Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the median level, having increased significantly compared to 2016, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is not low. However, considering the large increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high, with an overall neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation later. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and production - capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel tires downstream is lower than last year; the inventory of semi - steel tires is de - stocking marginally from a high level, but considering the market - scale expansion, it is evaluated as neutral [6]. Demand - In 2025, real - estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for a turnaround. Affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work volume, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with the 2019 level in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales still have policy and replacement - cycle support. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are oscillating weakly, and overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand. The Fed's interest - rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - economy, and it is expected that the global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. Price and Spread - Spot prices of rubber have a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber having a relatively larger increase. Ru basis is at a multi - year high, the spread between full - latex and Thai mixed rubber is at a low level. Ru 1 - 9 month spread has rebounded to 5, stronger than last year, while the nr contango spread is around - 55 and weakening, and the br contango spread is around - 30 [16][21][25]. Raw Materials and Profit - Thai raw materials are moving sideways with a weakening trend, and Hainan's raw - material prices are falling. In 2025, Thai raw - material prices are relatively strong compared to finished products, indicating a tightening of raw - material production capacity. However, the weak spread between latex and cup lump implies that the supply problem is not significant. Thai processing profit is better than last year but still in the negative area, reflecting over - capacity in processing and tight raw - material supply in Thailand [35][40]. Production and Import - The Asian Natural Rubber Producers' Council (ANRPC) predicts that the cumulative global natural - rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. As of October, ANRPC's production has a slight increase. The global output is expected to grow by 0.75% this year. The global production capacity is approaching the ceiling. In 2024, ANRPC member countries' production decreased by 0.12%, 5.3% lower than the peak. Globally, production increased by 2% in 2024 and is predicted to increase by 0.75% in 2025. In 2024, rubber imports were lower than previous years. In the first ten months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024 [74][75][85]. Demand - Side Indicators - This year, the operating rate of full - steel tires is higher than last year but still at a low level in recent years, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires is lower than last year. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire outer - tube production is 0.6%, with the marginal growth rate continuing to decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire exports is 3.8%, with the growth rate also continuing to decline marginally. Heavy - truck sales still have policy and replacement - cycle support. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well but with signs of marginal fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak [107][111][116].