文化纸企发布1月涨价函，汇率波动不改出口成长趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - Cultural paper companies have announced a price increase of 200 CNY/ton starting January 1, 2026, indicating a potential recovery in paper prices. The appreciation of the RMB is favorable for raw material procurement [3]. - Despite recent fluctuations in the RMB affecting export sentiment, the report anticipates a recovery in external demand under a backdrop of interest rate cuts, with strong alpha companies expected to maintain growth trends [3]. - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notice to regulate the electronic cigarette industry, which is expected to enhance the competitive edge of leading companies [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the market, with the industry index increasing by 1.69% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.95% [12]. - The packaging and printing index rose by 3.8%, while the home goods index increased by 0.21%, and the paper index rose by 4.47% [12]. 2. Home Furnishing - In November, residential sales saw an expanded decline, with furniture exports down by 12.7% year-on-year [28]. - The cumulative revenue of the furniture manufacturing industry from January to November decreased by 9.1% year-on-year [37]. 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 26, 2025, the prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 4725 CNY/ton (unchanged) and corrugated paper down to 2930.63 CNY/ton (down 143.75 CNY/ton) [46]. - The paper industry reported a cumulative revenue decline of 2.7% year-on-year from January to November [63]. 4. New Tobacco Products - The electronic cigarette industry is expected to improve as the government enforces stricter regulations, which may enhance the competitiveness of leading firms [6]. 5. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed, with the industry index increasing by only 0.61% [21]. - The demand for warm and sports apparel has increased due to online promotions and colder weather [7].