国泰君安期货能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20251228

Report Information - Report Title: Short Fiber, Bottle Chip Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Qian Jiayin, He Xiaoqin [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Short fiber: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. Currently, the upstream - downstream contradictions persist, and it is still volatile and strong. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year, and the game will continue [7]. - Bottle chip: It is volatile and weak. The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it is also volatile and strong. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year. There will be adjustments after over - rising, but the trend is still upward [9]. Summary by Directory Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - Spot plus fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton; the盘面 processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high [8]. - The盘面 processing fee is relatively low [104]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: Factory operation remains at a high level, with an average operation rate of 97.4%. Sanfangxiang slightly increased production, and new devices were put into production, increasing the short - term actual load and operation [7]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors continue to reduce their loads. The subsequent demand is expected to be weak, and some downstream enterprises may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. During the sharp rise of raw materials, terminal replenishment increased, but most of it was during the low - price promotion last weekend. The overall sales - to - production ratio is weak during the week, and it is more difficult to follow the price increase downstream [7]. - Inventory: Short fiber nominally reduces inventory, but physical inventory accumulates. The static inventory pressure is not significant, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 3.5 days and the physical inventory at 16.1 days [7]. Upstream Viewpoints - Not mentioned in the report Strategy - Unilateral: None [8] - Inter - period: Observe positive spreads on dips and intervene when the valuation is reasonable [8] - Inter - commodity: Hold long PX/TA and short PF [8] Bottle Chip (PR) Valuation and Profit - Spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, neutral; 02 - 03 processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, neutral [9] - Aggregation cost is around 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit calculated based on the domestic aggregation cost is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton [48] Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operation rate this week is 81.1%, and it is expected to reach 82.2% next week. Factory operations have increased again, with the load of Huafeng Zhuhai increasing, and the 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai producing products [9] - Demand: The off - season of demand continues, and the end - of - year stockpiling to increase the operation rate has not yet arrived. The average operation rate of beverage factories has decreased to around 60%, and the operation rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. The export volume in November - December is expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, mainly compensating for the export rhythm from September - October. With the price increase, the speculative demand of the middle and lower reaches has been released, and the factory has reduced inventory to about 13 days [9] Strategy - Unilateral: None [9] - Inter - period: Stop losses on reverse spreads and take long positions on positive spreads on dips (for contracts after March) [9] - Inter - commodity: None [9] Other Information Sino - US Negotiations and Tariffs - Fentanyl tariffs were reduced by 10%, and high - value reciprocal tariffs are no longer a potential weapon. The textile and clothing tax rate has decreased from 49.3% to 39.3%. The US may import a large amount in about one month, and there is still room for import in November - December, but it is expected to be mainly near - term orders. The positive impact is more reflected in the import expectations for the whole of next year, but competition from other countries should still be noted [10] New Capacity Planning in 2026 - Bottle chip: The domestic capacity to be put into operation (with relatively high certainty) is only the 400,000 - ton device of Kesheng and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2% [12] - Short fiber: The main domestic short - fiber devices are two sets: the 250,000 - ton device of Hengyi Yida and the 550,000 - ton device of Xin凤鸣, which are planned to be put into operation in the first half and mid - year respectively, with a relatively high capacity growth rate of 8.7%. In addition, since the 250,000 - ton device of Yida mainly produces sewing threads, it may also affect spunlace (through production conversion), and there is greater pressure on the non - standard price difference [15] Short - fiber Direct Export - It is expected to remain strong. The garment, weaving, and texturing sectors continue to shift overseas. The proportion of garment exports in Southeast Asia is high, and the production capacities of other countries such as Pakistan and Egypt have also increased, supporting the direct export of short fibers [16] - From the short - fiber export data from January - September 2025, the export growth rates of other regions except North America and Africa are relatively high, showing high resilience in the face of changes in trade conditions [17] Bottle Chip Market Conditions - Basis and monthly spread: In the second half of the week, raw materials rose sharply, the futures market followed, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread was generally weak [23] - Spot price and important spreads: Prices continued to rise, and the trading sentiment was fair. The factory's transaction price this week was 6050 - 6210 yuan/ton; the FOB price was 800 - 820 US dollars/ton [26] - Substitute spread comparison: The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a relatively low driving force for further substitution. The bottle chip maintains a relatively high level compared with general plastics such as PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues. Recently, the cost - effectiveness of bottle chips relative to PP is still relatively high [28][29] Production and Operation - Bottle chip: Since 2024, the production capacity base has been continuously expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber). After the Fuhai device was put into production this week, the subsequent production capacity base increased to 21.98 million tons. The bottle chip load this week is 81.1% [32] - Raw materials: PTA device increased its load, and the processing fee is at a low level; the MEG load has risen back to a high level, and the port inventory has accumulated [40][46] Cost and Profit - Aggregation cost is around 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit calculated based on the domestic aggregation cost is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton [48] Inventory - Bottle chip: The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has reached around 13 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons, and the estimated inventory in December is 3.44 million tons [53] - Short fiber: The polyester product follows the raw material price increase, and the inventory reduction is the main trend [114] Device Changes - Bottle chip: The 600,000 - ton device of Zhuhai Huafeng restarted. In late January 2026, it is expected that a 1.2 - million - ton device in Jiangyin will be shut down for maintenance (i.e., the total production reduction of Huafeng is expected to increase to 1.2 - 1.3 million tons, and the load will be reduced to around 60%), and it is expected to restart at the end of March. The 250,000 - ton device of Tenglong slightly reduced production to around 85% in mid - November, and it was originally planned to operate at full capacity around December 10, but it is now expected to operate at full capacity around late December. The 350,000 - ton device of Yisheng Dahua is expected to restart at the end of January, and Hainan Yisheng is expected to have additional corresponding maintenance. The new 300,000 - ton device of Fuhai was put into production and produced products on December 16 [59][60] Demand - Bottle chip: The downstream operation rate has increased month - on - month. The operation rate of beverage companies has increased slightly to between 70 - 90%, and there are some local areas with slightly higher or lower rates. In the sheet material sector, the operation rate in East China is 50 - 70%, and the operation rate in South China is around 40%. The average operation rate of edible oil companies is between 60 - 80%, and there are some local areas with slightly higher or lower rates [64][65] - Short fiber: The downstream operation of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [130] Global Trade Flow - Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and a small amount of growth is basically concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In addition, the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET substitution of virgin bottle chips in Europe and America also has bottlenecks in cost and supply. The overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle chip exports are: (1) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; (2) China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; (3) China - South Korea, Mexico, and the Middle East for re - export to North America; (4) China - Africa and South America [80] Export Situation - Bottle chip: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 658,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the tax code 39076910 was 125,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.5%, and 39076110 was 533,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The import volume of polyester slices was 25,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. From January - November 2025, the total domestic export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 7.088 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. Among them, the tax code 39076910 was 1.223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.0%, and 39076110 was 5.865 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.2% [87] - Polyester: In November, the export volume increased year - on - year, but there were differences month - on - month [119]