能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20251228

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao - Report Contact: Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - LPG: In the short term, the supply is tight. The 1 - month CP is expected to rise, which will support propane prices. However, as maintenance in the Middle East ends and US exports increase, supply pressure remains. With low chemical profits and many PDH maintenance plans in Q1, downward - driving factors are emerging [3][4]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand situation has tightened, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound. As some PP devices restart, the supply of propylene is expected to decrease, while the demand from downstream devices is expected to increase [6]. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic Spot and Basis: The domestic civil LPG price trend is weak, while the import cost is firm. The regional price difference between Shandong and East China has widened by 96 yuan/ton, and the regional price difference between South China and East China has increased by 24 yuan/ton [9]. - Domestic Market Price: The prices in South China are firm, while those in East China and Shandong have declined, with a significant decline in Shandong [14]. - Regional Quotation, Premium, and Freight: The Asian spot premium has slightly increased, and the CP FOB premium remains at a high level [20]. - Propane Price: Propane prices have maintained a firm trend [29]. Supply - US LPG Shipment: The shipment volume to Asia has increased month - on - month. The 4 - week moving average (MA4) of the US - Asia LPG shipment volume has increased by 30,000 tons [38][40]. - Canadian LPG Shipment: The overall shipment volume has decreased. The MA4 of the Canadian LPG shipment volume has decreased by 10,000 tons [44]. - Middle East LPG Shipment: Spot supply is tight, and shipments are delayed. The MA4 of the Middle East LPG shipment volume has decreased by 50,000 tons [45][49]. - LPG Commodity Volume: The total LPG commodity volume is 524,000 tons (+1.2%), and the civil LPG commodity volume is 219,000 tons (+0.4%) [59]. - Propane Commodity Volume: The import arrival volume has decreased by 286,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic refinery supply has slightly increased [70][72]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical Demand: The PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The PDH operating rate has increased by 1.4% to 76.4% [75]. - Domestic Refinery Inventory: The inventory is the same as in 2024, at a relatively low level in the same period, with limited month - on - month changes [77]. - Civil LPG Refinery Inventory: The month - on - month change is small [85]. - Ether - after C4 Refinery Inventory: The inventory has slightly increased [90][93]. - LPG Terminal Import Inventory: The arrival volume has fallen short of expectations, and the terminal inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month [95]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propylene Industry Chain Price: The cost - side propane is firm, while propylene is weak, and the PDH profit has declined month - on - month. The downstream trend has improved, with the powder profit remaining at the marginal level, and the PO and butanol - octanol profits have recovered [106][108]. - Propylene Price: The international/US - dollar price has remained flat month - on - month, while the domestic price has been weak [110][118]. Balance Sheet - Propylene Industry Chain Operating Rate: The PDH operating rate has increased month - on - month; the powder operating rate has further declined, while the butanol - octanol operating rate has increased significantly [128]. - National Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply: The overall supply situation and the operating rate changes of various production methods are analyzed. The PDH operating rate is expected to decline in Q1 [130]. - National Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand: The demand situation of various downstream products and their operating rate changes are presented [136]. - Shandong Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply: The supply situation and operating rate changes in Shandong are provided. The supply is expected to change with the restart of some devices [143]. - Shandong Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand: The demand situation and operating rate changes of downstream products in Shandong are shown [146]. - Shandong Region (Including Lianyungang, Jiangsu, and Haiwei) Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply: The supply situation and operating rate changes in this region are given [148]. - Shandong Region (Including Lianyungang, Jiangsu, and Haiwei) Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand: The demand situation and operating rate changes of downstream products in this region are presented [153]. Supply - Overall Upstream Operating Rate: The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%) [157]. - Refinery/Principal Operating Rate: The principal refinery operating rate remains at 75%, and the independent refinery operating rate in Shandong is 56%, with profits similar to those in 2024 [159]. - Cracking/Ethylene Cracking Operating Rate: The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (- 0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly recovered month - on - month [167]. - PDH Operating Rate: The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%). Due to many maintenance plans in January and February, the PDH operating rate in Q1 is expected to decline to around 70% [172][176]. - MTO Operating Rate: The MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (- 1.7%) [177]. - Propylene Import and Export: The monthly import volume of propylene has increased, and the import profit has decreased [182][185]. Demand - PP Operating Rate: The PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (- 2.5%). Some devices in Shandong and Northeast China have had operating rate changes [192][196]. - PP Profit: The PP price has stopped falling, and the external procurement profit has slightly recovered month - on - month [197]. - PP Powder Operating Rate: The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%); the powder - propylene price difference has continued to recover, and some devices have resumed operation [213]. - PO Operating Rate: The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (- 2.0%). Some devices have stopped or reduced production, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly next week [223][227]. - PO Profit: The PO price has increased, and the profit has improved [229][234]. - Acrylonitrile Operating Rate: The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (- 0.3%). One device in Shandong has stopped for maintenance [236][238]. - Acrylonitrile Profit: The acrylonitrile profit has increased [237][240]. - Acrylic Acid Operating Rate: The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%). One device in Shandong has stopped for maintenance [241][247]. - Acrylic Acid Profit: The acrylic acid profit has increased [243][244]. - n - Butanol Operating Rate: The n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%). Some devices have had short - term stops and restarts [249][253]. - n - Butanol Profit: The n - butanol profit has increased significantly [252][253]. - Octanol Operating Rate: The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%). Some devices have started up or had unstable operations [255][258]. - Octanol Profit: The octanol profit has increased significantly [257]. - Phenol - Ketone Operating Rate: The phenol - ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%). Some devices have restarted or had short - term fluctuations [260][266]. - Phenol - Ketone Profit: The phenol - ketone profit has increased [264][265]. - ECH Operating Rate: The ECH operating rate is 50.8% (+2.4%) [271]. Downstream Inventory - PP and PP Powder Inventory: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The PP powder inventory has also changed slightly [275][284]. - Other Downstream Inventory: The inventories of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc. in ports and factories have changed to varying degrees [286][287].