国债期货周报-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The medium - term view on the treasury bond futures market is to maintain an overall view of oscillating with a downward bias due to factors such as the central bank's relatively restrained monetary policy, changes in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and the unfalsifiable expectations for the 15th Five - Year Plan [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating upward pattern, with short - end rates moderately recovering and long - end intraday fluctuations intensifying. The yield curve shape was affected by loose liquidity and policy expectations, showing alternating characteristics of flattening and steepening [1][3] - The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting indicated the importance of structural monetary tools, and it is expected that there will be limited room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future [3] - The market showed a differentiated characteristic of short - end stability and intensified long - end fluctuations. Short - end rates were supported by loose liquidity, while long - end rates were pressured by policy expectations. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office proposed to continue implementing a "more proactive fiscal policy" in 2026 on December 25th, market concerns about the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds increased. Currently, the yield spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds has risen to a two - year high, and the value of the ultra - long end has emerged [5] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3. Seat Analysis - In terms of seat changes, private funds increased by 0.91%, foreign investors increased by 5.17%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 4.5%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 2.08%, foreign investors increased by 7.98%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 8.82% [9]