铅产业链周度报告-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The overall lead price is expected to fluctuate, with a price range of 17,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in the five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The spot premium of domestic lead has narrowed to par. [3][7] - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the spot import processing fee for lead concentrates with a grade of 60% remains at a low level. The continuous maintenance of primary lead smelting enterprises in Hunan, Jiangxi and other places has further affected the supply of primary lead. In the secondary lead sector, although the increase in lead prices has boosted the profits of secondary lead enterprises, the tight circulation of scrap batteries has limited the supply of secondary lead. [7] - On the consumption side, in order to cooperate with the annual financial settlement and inventory count, most lead - acid battery enterprises have adjusted their production rhythm. The operating rate of lead - battery enterprises has declined and raw material procurement has decreased. [7] - For trading strategies, in the unilateral strategy, due to the weak supply - demand pattern in the lead market, it is recommended to adopt an interval operation approach. Currently, the lead price is relatively high, so previous long - position holders need to be cautious and closely monitor the profit changes of secondary lead enterprises. In the spread strategy, although the domestic lead inventory has been continuously depleted, the weakening of the spot premium means that term positive spreads need to be approached with caution. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, and Open Interest - Price and Spread: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 17,555 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.00%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,585 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The LME lead 3 - month contract closed at 1,976.5 yuan/ton last week, with a decrease of 0.40%. The LME lead spot premium (0 - 3) last Friday was - 37.81, up 7.42 from the previous week. The premium of bonded - area lead remained unchanged at 100. The spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead decreased from 60 to 20. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead decreased from - 25 to - 50. The spread between the near - month and the first - continued contract increased from - 30 to - 15. [8] - Inventory: The Shanghai lead warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2,629 tons to 11,558 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons. The social inventory decreased by 2,600 tons to 17,900 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 9,725 tons to 248,900 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.70%, down 1.47% from the previous week. [8] - Transaction Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 58,769 lots, an increase of 2,308 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 55,558 lots, a decrease of 6,619 lots. The trading volume of the LME 3 - month lead contract was 3,806 lots, a decrease of 2,056 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots. [8] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrates: The import volume, domestic production, consumption, and inventory of lead concentrates are presented in the report. The import processing fee for lead concentrates decreased from - 135 to - 145 US dollars/ton, and the import smelting profit increased from - 2,123 to - 1,958 yuan/ton. The domestic processing fee remained at 300 yuan/ton, and the domestic smelting profit remained at - 2,900 yuan/ton. [8][29][30] - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead: The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are shown in the report. The production of primary lead has been affected by maintenance, and the production of secondary lead has been restricted by the tight supply of scrap batteries. The profit of secondary lead increased from 597 to 785 yuan/ton. [7][8][34][35] - Scrap Batteries and Secondary Lead: The price of scrap electric - vehicle batteries increased from 10,025 to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black - shell batteries increased from 10,225 to 10,325 yuan/ton. The raw - material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises is also presented in the report. [8][39][40] - Imports and Exports: The net import of refined lead, monthly import and export volumes of lead ingots, and import profit and loss are presented in the report. [43] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - Lead - Acid Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers are presented in the report. The export volume of batteries is also shown. [47] - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead, monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the report. [49]