能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fuel oil market prices rebounded slightly with limited fluctuations. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remain high, and the bunker market will enter the traditional off - season in January, so there is unlikely to be a sustained upward trend. However, the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela has led to a decline in Venezuelan exports, which will support the price of global high - sulfur fuel oil. For low - sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian refineries will gradually resume operation this month, putting pressure on the market. The FCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery will last until January, and low - sulfur spot from Africa will continue to flow to the Asia - Pacific. The strong spot prices in the Asia - Pacific region have attracted some European spot flows, which, together with Brazilian and African spot, will suppress prices. The key lies in the actions of Kuwaiti and Nigerian refineries. The return of the Al - Zour refinery will be bearish for prices, and if the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery remains under maintenance, its low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to be exported to Asia, impacting prices [4]. - The valuation of FU is 2400 - 2500, and the valuation of LU is 2900 - 3050. The strategies include: 1) The fuel oil price will remain weak in the short term. 2) The contango structure of FU and LU's monthly spreads is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) The short - term crack spreads of FU and LU have reached a low level, and the LU - FU spread will enter a shock period in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025, presented in weekly data [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: It includes the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume: It presents the monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly domestic commodity volume of fuel oil from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil supplied to ships in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It includes the inventory of heavy oil in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2025, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, the FOB price of 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 [45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It includes the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker swaps from 2024 - 2025, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][48][50][53]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spreads: It shows the high - and low - sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [59]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads: It includes the high - sulfur crack spread in Singapore, the 3.5% crack spread in Northwest Europe, the low - sulfur crack spread in Singapore, and the 1% crack spread in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 [61][63]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [70][72]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including import volumes in China, the Middle East, the US, etc., and export volumes from Russia, the Middle East, etc. [75]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including import volumes in Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, etc., and export volumes from the Middle East, Northwest Europe, etc. [77]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: This week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region entered a shock period, and the Zhoushan market moved in sync. In terms of spreads, the overseas spot prices were relatively weak, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices began to widen [80]. - Logic: Due to the increase in supply, overseas spot prices generally weakened. At the same time, the long and short positions of domestic FU and LU were not significantly different, performing relatively stronger than the external market. The internal - external spread increased compared with last week. However, if the number of new warrants on the FU and LU plates remains high, the spread may decline [81]. - Internal - External Spread Data: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous contract, LU continuous contract, LU first - month contract, and LU second - month contract from December 22 - 26, 2025 [82]. FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - Fuel Oil Main Contract: It shows the trading volume and open interest of the fuel oil main contract from 2020 - 2025 [95][97]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Contracts: It shows the trading volume and open interest of low - sulfur fuel oil continuous and first - month contracts from 2020 - 2025 [100][103]. FU and LU Warrant Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the number of FU and LU warrants from 2020 - 2025 [106][107].