基础化工行业周报：聚酯链景气上行，有机硅有望启动-20251228

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The polyester chain is experiencing an upward trend, with expectations for the silicone industry to start recovering [2][10] - Supply-demand expectations are improving, particularly for PX and PTA, with no new capacity expected in 2026, leading to a tighter supply situation [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of industry collaboration and self-discipline among major manufacturers to stabilize prices and improve profitability [3][10] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The PX industry has seen no new capacity additions for two consecutive years, with limited supply expected until new projects in Q4 2026 [2] - PTA has officially ended its rapid expansion phase, with no new capacity expected in 2026, and some companies are proactively reducing production [2] - The polyester filament industry is benefiting from a mature self-discipline mechanism, leading to significant price increases [3] 2. Industry Performance - The chemical sector has shown strong performance, with the industry index rising by 4.2% in the last week, outperforming major indices [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical industry index has increased by 33.6%, indicating strong recovery potential [24] 3. Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical in the polyester sector [9][21] - For the silicone sector, recommended stocks include Xinsilicon, Dongyue Silicon, and Hoshine Silicon [10][21] 4. Price and Margin Analysis - Recent price increases for PX and PTA have been noted, with PX prices reaching 7318 RMB/ton and PTA at 5040 RMB/ton, marking significant week-on-week increases [1][2] - The report anticipates that the profitability of polyester products will improve due to better supply-demand dynamics [2][3]