生猪：惜售情绪旺，等待元旦后现货印证

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.22 - 12.28), the spot market for live pigs showed strong prices. The supply decreased significantly due to enterprises reducing slaughter and high reluctance to sell among retail farmers after the Winter Solstice, while demand decreased this week but remained in the peak season. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly [1]. - Next week (12.29 - 1.4), live pig spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, but social groups' structural pig shortage and second - round fattening have driven up prices. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a lull, and enterprises' willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January is high, putting pressure on spot prices. In the futures market, the LH2601 contract may rise rapidly, the March contract is under pressure, and the far - end has entered the expected trading stage. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread and stop - loss [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (12.22 - 12.28) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Henan 20KG piglet price was 21.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), Henan live pig price was 12.08 yuan/kg (up from 11.43 yuan/kg last week), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week) [1]. - After the Winter Solstice, supply decreased as enterprises reduced slaughter and retail farmers were reluctant to sell. Demand decreased this week but was still in the peak season. The national average slaughter weight was 124.54KG, a 0.2% MoM decrease [1]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The live pig futures LH2601 contract had a maximum price of 11495 yuan/ton, a minimum of 11080 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11150 yuan/ton (down from 11485 yuan/ton last week). The LH2601 contract basis was 630 yuan/ton (up from - 55 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (12.29 - 1.4) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The supply pressure is high, but social groups' structural pig shortage and second - round fattening have led to a sharp price increase. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a lull, and enterprises' willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January is high, putting pressure on spot prices [3]. 3.2.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 contract price closed at 11300 yuan/ton on December 26th. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price rose rapidly. The January contract may rise rapidly, the March contract is under pressure, and the far - end has entered the expected trading stage. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread, with a short - term support level of 11000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12200 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4]. 3.3 Other Data 3.3.1 Basis and Monthly Spread - This week's basis was 780 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was - 345 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.54KG (down from 124.79KG last week). In October, pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% MoM increase, and pork imports were 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% MoM decrease [11]. 3.3.3 Demand - Not specifically summarized in the text, but it is mentioned that demand decreased this week but was still in the peak season, and there were changes in different demand periods such as after the Winter Solstice and after New Year's Day [1][3]