Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to trade in a low - range. The 25/26 sugar season is anticipated to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, with prices under pressure. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - The domestic market maintains the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to rise, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03 (previous value 98.71), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.54 (previous value 5.52) [1][6]. - The WTI crude oil price is $56.93 per barrel, a 1.84% increase [1][6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a 2.15% increase. The spot quotation of Guangxi sugar groups is 5,360 yuan per ton, an increase of 80 yuan per ton from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,285 yuan per ton, an increase of 197 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased [1][2][14]. - As of the end of last week, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 5,038 lots [15]. - As of December 16, in the CFTC's latest position report on New York raw sugar, long positions of funds decreased by 42 lots, short positions decreased by 11,030 lots, and net long positions increased by 10,988 lots to - 166,702 lots, a slight increase [1][15]. 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: ISO predicts a supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 592 million tons, a 1.92% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 39.9 million tons, a 1.13% increase; alcohol production was 29.53 billion liters, a 5.43% decrease; the cumulative ratio of sugar - used cane was 51.12%, compared with 48.34% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of December 15, in the 25/26 sugar season, India produced 7.79 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.35 million tons (previous forecast 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons of sugar used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons; in the 24/25 sugar season, it was 29.5 million tons (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons) [19]. - Thailand: As of December 24, in the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand produced 1 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 170,000 tons [20]. - China: CAOC predicts that in the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production will be 11.7 million tons (previous forecast 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous forecast 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. In November 2025, 440,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. In November 2025, the combined imports of syrup and premixed powder were 110,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 230,000 tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons [2][20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Trade in a low - range. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, which is bearish. New York raw sugar will trade in a low - range. Although sugar prices have fallen to a phased low, the cost of corn ethanol has pulled down the valuation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic market: Maintain the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to increase, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29].
白糖：维持弱基差预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-28 08:43