美国GDP超预期，美元维持走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The US GDP in Q3 exceeded expectations, with an annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value of 4.3%, much higher than the expected 3.3%. Although the US economy performed better than expected in 2025, there are still risks. The subsequent consumption momentum is expected to slow down, and the economy has not yet entered a recovery cycle. The recent strong performance of commodities is due to the expectation of significant monetary policy easing and the resulting long - term inflation increase [2][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US Treasury yield dropped to 4.13%. The US dollar index fell 0.41% to 98, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 4.5% to $4533 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 13.6, and the spot commodity index closed up. Brent crude oil rose 0.47% to $60.33 per barrel [1][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.4%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.5%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.51%. The US economy in Q3 exceeded expectations, but the subsequent consumption momentum may slow down. The Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle in 2026, which supports the stock market. Domestic stocks showed resilience, with aerospace becoming a popular sector [10][11] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.13%. The US economy has resilience, and the downward space for US Treasury yields is limited. Developed - country bond yields have upward potential. The emerging - market bond market showed mixed performance, and the pressure on the US dollar to weaken decreased. The domestic bond market was weakly oscillating [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.41% to 98, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.42%, the euro rose 0.53%, the pound rose 0.87%, and the yen rose 0.75% [26][29] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 4.5% to $4533 per ounce, and silver prices rose 18.3% in a single week. Brent crude oil rose 0.47% to $60.33 per barrel. The commodity spot index closed up, and the short - term risk of precious metals and non - ferrous metals increased significantly [30][32] 3.3 Hot - Spot Tracking - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and commodities accelerated their rise. The strong performance of commodities is due to the expectation of significant monetary policy easing and the resulting long - term inflation increase [33][37] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US new housing starts and building permits in November - Tuesday: US Chicago PMI in December - Wednesday: China's official manufacturing PMI in December, US initial jobless claims for the week - Thursday and Friday: New Year's Day holiday closure; Eurozone and US December manufacturing PMI final values [39]