棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期价格反弹，豆油：美豆企稳，豆油震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the palm oil price can be short - term confirmed at the bottom, but long - term layout requires further observation. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and the driving force is not strong, so short - term interval operation is the main approach. Long - term layout of oils still needs more verification and patience. [3][6] - The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the domestic soybean product spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - In December, the production reduction was close to 10%, gradually fulfilling the production reduction expectation. High - frequency export data was good, providing short - term support for palm oil. Meanwhile, technical buying was strong, and the 05 contract rose 2.78% last week. [1] Soybean Oil - Lacking South American weather speculation, the upward driving force of US soybeans was limited. It mainly rebounded with palm oil, and the 05 contract of soybean oil rose 1.40% last week. [2] 2. This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - MPOA data shows that the production reduction in December was 8%, gradually approaching the production level of 1.75 million tons. ITS data shows that exports in the first 25 days increased by 2%. In December, it is very likely to start the seasonal de - stocking process. A large number of buying orders emerged at the technical buying point of 8200, and it has returned to the normal trading choice of buying on dips during the production - reduction season. [3] - Although more monthly production data is still needed to verify whether the current high - yield of palm oil is due to improved park management and increased labor or factors such as tree age and rainfall. With the arrival of high - intensity rainfall in the rainy season, if the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the short - term bottom of palm oil can be confirmed. Long - term layout needs further observation. If the month - on - month production reduction in January is still less than 10%, a normal monthly increase of 100,000 tons in 2026 production has to be considered, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. [3] - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have stabilized, and the refining profit in Indonesia has continued to rise. After short - term demand stimulation, Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts. Indonesia announced the biodiesel allocation volume of 15.64 million kiloliters for 2026 within the scope of the B40 plan, which will increase the industrial demand for palm oil in Indonesia by about 800,000 tons next year. This figure is not enough to offset the optimistic expectation of palm oil production growth in Indonesia next year, but the market reaction was flat, even showing a sentiment of "bad news is out". This reflects the market's expectation for B50 next year and that the current demand is not the main contradiction. The de - stocking process during the low - production period dominates the trading rhythm. If the inventory cannot be reduced to below 1.8 million tons after June next year, whether B50 can be promoted in the second half of the year will become a key variable and hit the market's confidence in going long. [3] - In the consumer areas, the recent import profit of CPO in India has declined. Although the previous good profit stimulated India's ship - buying, showing certain marginal demand, it was not enough to cause the short - squeeze situation since June. The import profit inversion in China has widened, and the speed of releasing the pressure from the producing areas is not fast. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the production reduction in Malaysia in December to confirm the price bottom. US soybean oil is unlikely to get further stimulation in the short term, and it mainly operates in an interval based on fundamental trading, without upward breakthrough momentum, but its support is actually stronger than that of Malaysian palm oil. The upward opening of the palm oil price space needs to expect a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, waiting for the producing areas to start de - stocking and the production in the first and second quarters to be lower than expected to inject imagination space for the new year. [3] Soybean Oil - As of this week, the growth of soybeans in South American countries is generally good, and the production prospect is positive. In the next half - month, the rainfall in various places in Brazil and Paraguay will continue to alternate, which is generally conducive to maintaining the current good growth state of soybeans. However, the core producing areas in Argentina will face the first round of high - temperature and little - rain weather this year, and attention should be paid to the changes in the later rainfall forecast. The pressure of the good prospect of South American soybeans is strongly reflected in the US soybean market. If Argentina still cannot develop a drought later, it is temporarily difficult to see the height of the rebound of the January CBOT soybeans. It is expected that the main form of January's fluctuation will be oscillatory stabilization. [5] - Against the background of fewer ship - buying in China in the first quarter of next year, the suspension of the auction of state - reserve imported soybeans and the ambiguous news of strengthened customs quarantine on soybean imports in China prompted the domestic soybean products to rebound strongly this week. The soybean inventory at domestic ports will accelerate to decline from January to February, which is conducive to supporting the strength of domestic soybean spot and near - month contracts. The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. Insufficient export demand and arrival of goods enable domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly de - stocking process until March or April next year. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5] 3. [Disk Basic Market Data] - Price and Volume Data: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, position volume, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil main contracts are provided. For example, the palm oil main contract opened at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a high of 8,610 yuan/ton, a low of 8,230 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 8,568 yuan/ton, up 2.78%. [8] - Spread Data: The current and previous week's values and changes of spreads such as the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread, soybean - palm 01 spread, palm oil 15 spread, soybean oil 15 spread, and rapeseed oil 15 spread are presented. For example, the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,421 yuan/ton this week, up 45.45% from last week. [8] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The current and previous week's values and changes of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are given. For example, the number of palm oil warehouse receipts this week was 260 hands, a decrease of 336 hands from last week. [8] 4. [Core Data of Oil Fundamentals] - Production and Inventory Data: Graphs show that Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in December is close to 10%, and although the inventory at the end of the year is still high, it is likely to de - stock in December. Indonesia's inventory at the end of the year is expected to return to a neutral and relatively loose level. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 600,000 tons. [10][12][17] - Price and Profit Data: Graphs display the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, India's palm oil import profit, the CNF price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil, the basis of palm oil (South China) for 01, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu). [12][16] - Export and Rainfall Data: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from the same period last month. Graphs also show the POGO price difference, Malaysia's and Indonesia's weekly rainfall conditions (including two - week forecasts). [13][14][16]