棉花：震荡偏强，注意市场情绪变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton rebounded due to a weaker dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved weekly US cotton export data, but its upward momentum is limited, and it is currently in a low - level consolidation. In the short term, it is likely to remain in low - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [1][7][18]. - The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market have not changed significantly. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is more affected by market sentiment, especially after breaking through 14,300. The supply of domestic cotton is sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market is not pessimistic about the full - year demand in the 2025/26 season. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 63.75, reached a high of 64.81, a low of 63.48, and closed at 64.46, up 0.81 with a 1.27% increase. Trading volume was 52,219 lots, a decrease of 44,678 lots, and open interest was 180,943 lots, a decrease of 2,503 lots [6]. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,045, reached a high of 14,700, a low of 14,010, and closed at 14,535, up 520 with a 3.71% increase. Trading volume was 1,747,852 lots, an increase of 538,313 lots, and open interest was 903,860 lots, an increase of 142,317 lots [6]. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,050, reached a high of 20,720, a low of 20,045, and closed at 20,585, up 535 with a 2.67% increase. Trading volume was 60,104 lots, an increase of 21,170 lots, and open interest was 23,202 lots, an increase of 381 lots [6]. 2. Fundamentals International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: rebounded this week but has limited upward momentum and is in a low - level consolidation [7]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% week - on - week increase and a 95% increase from the four - week average. Vietnam contracted 28,400 tons, and China 20,200 tons. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 3,400 tons. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 30,500 tons, a 32% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipments were 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the annual total contracts [7]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: CCI's procurement continued. The cumulative procurement of 2025/26 season seed cotton converted to lint was 850,000 tons, and there was also 94,000 tons of 2024/25 season cotton, so the total inventory was 944,000 tons. As of December 23, the cumulative market volume in India this year was 2.006 million tons, an increase of 272,000 tons from December 17 [8]. - Brazil: Planting progress was slow. As of December 20, the 2025/26 season cotton planting in Brazil was 16.9% completed, a 6.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 3 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 3.7 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years [8]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remained moderate. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a 41.5% decrease from the previous month (76,000 tons) and a 61.9% decrease year - on - year (116,000 tons) [9]. - Vietnam: Imported cotton was sporadically purchased. The purchase was limited to a small amount of recently shipped resources, mainly focusing on certified cotton such as BCI and US Cotton Trust Protocol [9]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending December 26, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 66.9%, Vietnam's was 61.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices continued to rise, and fixed - price transactions were good. As of December 26, the first - grade cotton registered warehouse receipts were 4,853, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3,834, totaling 8,687, equivalent to 364,854 tons [12]. - Spinning mills' confidence was boosted, and the situation of fabric mills continued to diverge. The overall actual transaction price of pure - cotton yarn increased by about 200 yuan. The Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a relatively high startup rate, while the startup rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline. The full - cotton grey fabric market was still divided, and the order - receiving situation was not optimistic [13]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts related to cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, startup rates, profits, spreads, import profits, basis, and warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is likely to remain in low - level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [18]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [18].