碳酸锂：基差背离待修正，正极厂启动检修

Report Overview - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Basis Deviation to be Corrected, Cathode Plants Initiate Maintenance - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, lithium carbonate futures contracts rose significantly. The 2601 contract closed at 127,800 yuan/ton, up 18,080 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 130,520 yuan/ton, up 19,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 14,250 yuan/ton to 111,900 yuan/ton. The SMM futures-spot basis (2601 contract) fell 3,830 yuan/ton to -15,900 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the resumption of production of large mines is postponed again. Overseas shipments have increased, but short-term production elasticity is limited. Many cathode material manufacturers will conduct maintenance at the end of December or early January, and the off-season has arrived as expected. Terminal performance is divided, with the domestic energy storage winning bid scale in the first three weeks of December increasing by 74% year-on-year, while the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by only 1% year-on-year [3]. - In terms of inventory, this week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 652 tons, with the destocking speed slowing down by 392 tons compared with last week. The downstream inventory destocking speed remained high, and the midstream inventory accumulation speed increased. This week, 2,350 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 17,861 lots [4]. - Regarding the future market, the off-season demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are continuously strengthening. There are large differences between bulls and bears. Bears believe that the inventory pressure will gradually increase, while bulls believe that the cathode processing fee is expected to rise through negotiation, which is beneficial to the further increase of upstream lithium salts [5]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be between 120,000 and 140,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, near - month positions are restricted, and the far - end price is relatively strong. For hedging, due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended that both upstream and downstream appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report provides charts of the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Mines) - Charts show the processing profit of spodumene concentrate in the spot and futures markets, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with data sources including Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9][10][11]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple charts display the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade lithium carbonate to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price, the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate by region, the weekly production and weekly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and Argentina, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate downstream and smelters, all sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [11][13][14][15][16]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Charts present the monthly production and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of ternary materials, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of various ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various domestic power lithium batteries, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [17][18].