能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251228

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to experience high-level volatile consolidation in the short term. The high prices are mainly due to the overall commodity market sentiment and capital operation rather than real demand. The de-stocking trend in the supply side provides support for the market, while the demand from the downstream paper market remains weak. [98] 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of December 25, 2025, the pulp inventories at Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China decreased, with a 8.9% decline at Changshu Port, 2.0% at Qingdao Port, and 26.7% at Gaolan Port. The total inventory of major sample ports in China decreased by 4.4% to 1.906 million tons, showing a continuous de-stocking trend for five weeks. [5][6] - In November 2025, the import of bleached softwood pulp in China was 725,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.9% and a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The import of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.765 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 33.8% and a year-on-year increase of 29.7%. The import of chemimechanical pulp was 104,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5%. [6][7] Market Data - On December 26, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was -30 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 131.91% and a year-on-year decrease of 107.01%. The basis of Russian needle pulp was -230 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 116.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 945.45%. The price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 200 yuan/ton, with no month-on-month change and a year-on-year decrease of 55.56%. [16] - On December 26, 2025, the 01 - 03 month spread was -32 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20.00%, and the 03 - 05 month spread was -34 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 5.56%. [21] Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp narrowed this week. On December 26, 2025, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 930 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.29%. The price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 730 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.60%. [25][27] - The import profit of pulp rebounded. In January 2026, the export prices of some Brazilian hardwood pulp and bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) from April of the Golden Eagle Group increased by $20/ton. [31] - The price of imported softwood pulp rose first and then fell slightly this week, with limited decline. The demand from downstream paper mills was difficult to expand, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. [33] - The price of imported hardwood pulp remained high and stable. The import cost is expected to increase, but the demand from downstream paper mills was weak, and the trading volume slowed down. [36] - The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp were stable this week. [41] Supply - The purchase prices of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China mostly decreased this week. [43] - The price and supply of domestic pulp were stable this period. [47] - In October 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month-on-month, and the global pulp outbound volume decreased seasonally month-on-month. [52] - In October 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was low, and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, but the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year-on-year high. [54] - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased significantly month-on-month and was at a low level year-on-year. In September, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased both month-on-month and year-on-year. In October, the export volume of Finnish softwood pulp to China continued to rise month-on-month. [57][60] - In October 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. In November, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased significantly month-on-month, and the export volumes of Uruguay and Chile decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. [63][64] - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with a 4.93% increase in softwood pulp and a significant 33.85% increase in hardwood pulp month-on-month. [66] Demand - The price of domestic offset paper was stable. The core contradiction was the double squeeze of high costs and weak demand. Although paper enterprises intended to raise prices, the social demand was weak, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. [70] - The domestic coated paper market was mainly adjusted slightly in different regions. Paper mills maintained stable production, but the demand was differentiated. The market was cautious, and some regions had price inversion. [74] - The price of white cardboard decreased slightly this period. The cost had little impact on the market. The production increased, the downstream demand improved slightly, and the market price was mainly stable, with some discounts in local markets. [78] - The price of tissue paper increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was dull, and the terminal demand improved little. The cost was supported by the stable price of raw pulp and the firm price of hardwood pulp. [82] - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month-on-month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month-on-month. [86] Inventory - On December 26, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 101,000 tons, with 95,000 tons in warehouses and 6,000 tons in factories. The warehouse receipt quantity in warehouses increased by 2.13% month-on-month and decreased by 69.45% year-on-year. [89] - The overall port inventory was at a relatively low level in the year, and the inventory of major sample ports in China continued to decline this period. The inventory at Qingdao Port and Changshu Port continued to decrease, and the daily shipment speed at Qingdao Port increased. [95]