锌产业链周度报告-20251228

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Research Group: Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Chief Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Contact Person: Wang Zongyuan [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Zinc prices are in a short - term tangled consolidation phase with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - Domestic supply is gradually resuming production, while demand is seasonally declining. The overseas short - squeeze has ended, and the domestic inventory reduction pace may slow down. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will dominate prices, and there is potential for zinc prices to rise. Consider buying on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Price: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,170, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 23,215, with a night - session increase of 0.19%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3086.5, with a weekly increase of 0.28% [5]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 145,708, an increase of 82,086 from the previous week, and the open interest was 97,425, an increase of 50,616. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 7,997, a decrease of 497, and the open interest was 229,088, an increase of 1,627 [5]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warrant inventory decreased by 3,103 to 42,075; SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,054 to 72,963; social inventory decreased by 7,500 to 114,700; LME zinc inventory increased by 6,975 to 106,875; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore, smelter finished product inventories are falling from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories are decreasing [8]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are rising and are at a medium - to - high historical level; smelting profits are rising and at a historical median; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [10][11]. - Capacity Utilization: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - to - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization rates have declined and are at a medium level compared to the same period; downstream galvanizing, zinc die - casting, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates have increased but are at a medium - to - low historical level [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: Spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin are oscillating. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with the Singapore premium stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and changed to a C structure [16][17]. - Spread: The SHFE zinc C structure has flattened [19]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total inventory. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [27][32][34]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. Ore arrivals at ports are at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [38][39]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has declined and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - Imports and Exports: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history [51][54]. 3.5 Demand - Refined Zinc: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history [51][54]. - Downstream Industries: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [70]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are presented, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries is also shown [72][75].