铜产业链周度报告-20251228

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are rising significantly due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. The macro - environment shows strong economic data in the US and continuous release of favorable policies in China. Fundamentally, short - term domestic spot drivers are weakening, but overseas drivers remain strong. Long - term fundamentals still support copper prices [3][7]. - It is recommended to use a long - position trading model as multiple logics drive the price to remain firm. There are also opportunities in spread trading such as term positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME, SHFE, and INE copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 14%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 18%, showing a significant rebound compared to the previous week [12][13]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has also widened [14][16]. - Position: The LME copper position has decreased, while the positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased. The SHFE copper position has increased by 22,800 lots to 654,700 lots [17]. - Fund and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has increased [23]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, while the Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded. The US copper premium remains at a high level, and the Rotterdam and Southeast Asian copper premiums are stable or rising [27][29]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased [30][34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio fluctuates, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and the processing fee remains weak. The port inventory has decreased, and the smelting loss has narrowed [38][40]. - Recycled Copper: Imports and domestic production have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the import loss has turned into profit [41][46]. - Blister Copper: Imports have increased month - on - month, and the processing fee has rebounded [49]. - Refined Copper: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss of copper spot imports has expanded [52]. 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in November, but the operating rates of copper tubes and copper strips and foils are at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable decreased marginally in the week of December 25 [57]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. The copper strip and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees are stable at a low level [60][62]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a historically low level [63]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. The finished product inventory of copper tube enterprises is at a relatively low level [66]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent copper consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual copper consumption from January to October increased by 8.36% year - on - year, and the apparent consumption increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The power grid investment growth rate has slowed down [71][73]. - Sector - Specific Consumption: Air - conditioner production decreased in November, with a year - on - year decline of 35.70%. New - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level, with a year - on - year increase of 20.05% in November [74].