铸造铝合金产业链周报-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for casting aluminum alloys is marginally weakening, and the prices are oscillating at high levels. The supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, and cost increases provide some support for prices, but the weakening demand may suppress prices. Short - term prices may show high - level oscillations. The market has positive expectations for automobile consumption in 2026 [6] Summary by Directory 1. General Overview - In November 2025, automobile production was 353.20 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. New energy vehicle production was 188.00 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%. The total supply was 870,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.45%. The social inventory data was not provided. The automobile inventory warning index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 11.28%. Motorcycle production in December 26, 2025 was 1.84 million vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The price of scrap automobile wheels was 18,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%. The price of scrap motorcycle wheels was 18,075 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. Small household appliance production was 34.19 million units, with no month - on - month change. The production of casting aluminum alloys in November was 680,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.312%. The latest value of the combined factory and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots as of December 26 was 129,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week [7] 2. Trading End - Volume and Price - This week, the aluminum price oscillated strongly, driving the price of casting aluminum alloys up to a high of 21,600 yuan. As of December 26, the combined factory and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.15 million tons from the previous week to 12.91 million tons, with high visible inventory. From December 1 - 21, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 1.3 million vehicles, a 19% year - on - year decrease and a 5% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail volume this year was 22.783 million vehicles, a 4% year - on - year increase [6] 3. Trading End - Arbitrage 3.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2601 and AD2602 contracts, the futures price difference is 35 yuan/ton. The fixed cost is 8.30 yuan/ton, including VAT of 4.03 yuan/ton and trading fees of 4.28 yuan/ton. The storage cost is 38.00 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt capital cost is 48.99 yuan/ton. The futures capital cost is not calculated [12] 3.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual market spot price fluctuates around the Baotai price. The spot price of casting aluminum alloy is 21,600 yuan/ton, the spot warehouse storage fee is 1 yuan/ton/day, the storage time is 329 days, and the total cost including storage, capital, and registration is 22,549.7 yuan/ton [13][14] 4. Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in November 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and fragments was 1.684 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.17% [16][20] 5. Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloys shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of casting aluminum alloys remains flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The production of recycled aluminum alloys has corresponding data, and the cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, currently in a loss state. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloys has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for casting aluminum alloys is temporarily closed [30][40][46] 5.1 Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are provided. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions has different proportions, and the same goes for the factory inventory [59][60][61] 6. Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [65][66]