能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to follow the overall commodity market sentiment in the short - term, with prices likely to experience a rapid rise followed by high - level consolidation. As the domestic production areas enter the off - season at the end of the month and the overseas high - yield period continues, upstream factories are stocking up moderately, leading to a slight decline in raw material prices. The continuous accumulation of port inventory may provide short - term support to the natural rubber market. Attention should be paid to the extent of inventory accumulation and downstream holiday arrangements [103]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, with 2.518 million tons exported to China, a year - on - year increase of 24% [5]. - In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, and consumption to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons. For the whole year of 2025, global production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 887,491 units, and the cumulative sales in the first 11 months increased by 1.4% year - on - year to 9.86 million units [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber prices rose significantly, with Singapore TSR20 rubber having the largest increase. On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 increased by 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% respectively compared to the previous period [10][12]. - The basis and spreads showed different trends. For example, the RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads increased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread decreased [19]. - The prices of substitute products, such as domestic butadiene rubber, increased this week. The factors driving the increase in supply and market prices mainly included the expectation of reduced production profits for butadiene rubber due to the destocking of butadiene in January of the next year, the strengthening of cost - side support, and the expectation of macro - level benefits such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January of the next year [33]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching its end with decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed with relatively low temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [41][43]. - Raw material prices: As Hainan's production area gradually stops tapping, the enthusiasm of factories for purchasing rubber has significantly decreased. Affected by the high - yield period of overseas rubber tapping, Thai raw material prices are weak [45]. - Export situation: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with only latex showing a slight month - on - month increase. In October 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a sharp decrease in the export volume of standard rubber. In October 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in latex exports. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the export volume to China decreased significantly month - on - month [62][68][74][76]. - Import situation: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: During the period, the capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The inventory of tires continued to accumulate. In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. The sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. The export of tires recovered slightly month - on - month [83][86]. - Road transportation: In November 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber in China continued to accumulate seasonally, with the accumulation of dark - colored rubber being greater than that of light - colored rubber. The inventory accumulation continued to put pressure on prices, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the later period [96].