镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现，不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus on nickel and stainless steel in the capital market is due to changes in the news, including Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target and the consideration of including associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system [1]. - The nickel price may fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industry and funds. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore news in the first quarter. Options can be considered in trading, and short - term attention can be paid to structural arbitrage opportunities [3]. - The stainless steel market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the cost support center moving up. The core contradiction lies in the raw material end. The price is likely to oscillate in a range and may not return to previous lows, and the direction will depend on the implementation of Indonesia's policies in the first quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 News Impact on Nickel and Stainless Steel - Quota Event: If Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota is implemented, the expected surplus may turn into a shortage. However, considering the "downstream policy", the implementation time is uncertain, and the first quarter of 2026 is an important window for tracking policy implementation [1]. - Associated Minerals Event: Indonesia wants to include cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. It is estimated that the cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - Nickel: The previous trading logic was the surplus pressure and the expected commissioning of hydrometallurgy projects. The Indonesian news has increased market volatility. The nickel price will be in a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short - term [3]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, but the cost center has moved up due to the impact of nickel - related factors. The price will oscillate in a range, and the upper - limit increase may be restricted by the actual delivery profit [5]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons to 56,725 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons [6]. - New Energy: On December 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed to 13.0 days; and on December 25, the ternary material inventory changed to 6.9 days [6]. - Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel: On December 25, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month to 132,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel factory inventory in November was 1.588 million tons, and on December 25, the steel - union stainless - steel social total inventory was 1,005,136 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55% [6]. 3.4 Market News - Multiple events have occurred, including Indonesia's forestry working group taking over a nickel - ore mining area, China suspending a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, Indonesia sanctioning mining companies, and Indonesia planning to adjust the nickel - ore production target and pricing formula [7][8][10][11].