债市行情或在一季度启动，固收资产怎么选？

Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently under pressure due to fundamental challenges and a loose monetary environment, with concerns about supply-demand mismatches being a primary issue. However, there is an expectation for a temporary alleviation of these pressures in Q1 2026, leading to a potential downward trend in bond yields, possibly reaching a low for the year [4][8] - The market is characterized by a "strong expectation but weak reality" scenario, where economic performance is not aligning with financial market optimism. Despite a strong equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, which could provide support for the bond market as expectations adjust [10] - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is expected to strengthen, with fiscal measures likely taking the lead and monetary policy providing support. This collaboration is crucial for maintaining a stable bond market environment [17][18] Group 1: Market Support Factors - Support Factor One: Strong Expectation, Weak Reality The economic performance is currently low, with insufficient effective demand impacting production. Historical trends show that equity market uptrends are usually linked to fundamental improvements, but this time, the equity market is rising despite ongoing downward pressures on the economy [10][11] - Support Factor Two: Monetary and Fiscal Coordination The fiscal policy is expected to be the main driver, with monetary policy acting in support. The issuance of government bonds is anticipated to be front-loaded in Q1 2026, with a focus on longer maturities, which will require careful coordination with monetary policy [17][18] - Support Factor Three: Anticipation of Monetary Easing There is an expectation for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in Q1 2026, which could lead to a favorable environment for bond yields to decline. Historical patterns suggest that such easing typically occurs at least once a year [26][27] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investment Strategy: Combination of Short-Medium Term Credit Bonds and Long-Term Rate Bonds A "barbell" strategy combining short to medium-term credit bonds with long-term rate bonds is recommended. Historical data indicates that a 10 basis point decline in the 10-year government bond yield is likely, which would favor long-term bonds despite their higher volatility [30][31] - Perspective One: Historical Experience Reference Based on historical data, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to decrease by approximately 10 basis points in Q1 2026, with long-term bonds showing strong performance but higher volatility compared to short to medium-term credit bonds [30][31] - Perspective Two: Scenario Hypothesis Simulation Assuming a 10 basis point decline in the 10-year government bond yield, the total returns for long-term bonds are expected to outperform, although they are less resilient to rising interest rates. In contrast, short to medium-term credit bonds are projected to provide better total returns with a stronger safety cushion [39][40]