Soochow Securities·2025-12-28 09:03Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with insurance and multi-financial sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index recently. The insurance sector is expected to perform well in the upcoming "opening red" period for 2026 [1][9] - The insurance industry has seen improvements in premium growth, with a year-to-date increase of 9.2% in original premiums for life insurance [20][27] - The securities sector is experiencing a decline in trading volume but is supported by new policies allowing foreign investors to engage in bond repurchase transactions [14][19] Summary by Sections Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (December 22-26, 2025), the multi-financial sector rose by 3.20%, and the insurance sector increased by 2.98%, while the overall non-bank financial sector rose by 1.97% [9] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has increased by 35.78%, outperforming other sectors [10] Non-Bank Financial Sector Insights Securities - Trading volume has decreased, with an average daily trading amount of 21,509 billion CNY in December, a 22.49% increase year-on-year but a 4.02% decrease month-on-month [14] - The margin financing balance reached 25,454 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.40% [14] - The average PB valuation for the securities sector is 1.3x for 2025E, with recommendations for leading firms like CITIC Securities and Tonghuashun [19] Insurance - The insurance sector's original premium for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 44,206 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [20] - The asset-liability management regulations are being revised to strengthen oversight, which is expected to enhance risk management in the sector [23][27] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.69-1.02 times 2025E P/EV, indicating a historical low and maintaining an "Overweight" rating [27] Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion CNY by mid-2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [30] - The futures market recorded a transaction volume of 7.70 billion contracts in November, with a transaction value of 66.61 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.54% [34] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial services, with key recommendations including China Life, Ping An, and CITIC Securities [45] - The sector is characterized by low average valuations, providing a safety margin and balanced risk-reward profile [45]