国泰君安期货能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20251228

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3082452 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the winter storage period, the spot price of asphalt remained low and stable. The price of asphalt fluctuated within a narrow range, and the upside was still limited by the off - season [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.1%, a 4.0% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.3%, a 3.7% week - on - week increase, mainly due to the production increase of Liaohe Petrochemical and the stable production of some major refineries in Shandong, East, and South China after resuming production [4]. - Demand: From December 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.4 tons, a 15.4% week - on - week increase. Shipments increased significantly in South and Shandong China. In South China, low - price support led to good shipments, while in Shandong, downstream storage demand increased, and refineries fulfilled previous contracts [4]. - Valuation: The average weekly theoretical processing profit of domestic asphalt was - 339 yuan/ton, a 16 yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3049 yuan/ton, a 25 yuan/ton week - on - week decrease. The spot price fluctuated between 3044 - 3056 yuan/ton. Six regions saw price drops of 0.1% - 4.8%, with South China having the highest drop of 4.8%. Only Shandong had a price increase due to reduced available spot resources and good stocking enthusiasm [4]. - Strategy: For options, sell put (2800) and sell call (3200) [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as crude oil indices (Brent, WTI, etc.), imported diluted asphalt, and raw material supply. Different crude oils have different asphalt yields, e.g., the yield of Ma Rui crude oil is 55% - 60% [7]. - Futures - Disk Price and Trading Positions: Data on the disk price and trading positions of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils are presented [11]. - Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin in Shandong are shown [12]. - Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread: Data on the basis in Shandong and the calendar spread of different futures contracts are provided [17][15]. Fundamental Data - Demand: Asphalt demand comes from road construction, maintenance, waterproofing, shipping fuel, coking, and export markets. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. From December 17 - 23, 2025, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 15.4% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 7.1%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease and a 0.8% year - on - year increase [20][24]. - Supply: - Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: In January 2026, the total planned asphalt output in China is 2 million tons, a 7.3% month - on - month decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year decrease. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 3.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses increased by 3.0% [29]. - 开工率: Data on the weekly开工率 of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [31][33][35]. - Inventory: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions are provided [40].