烧碱：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力，PVC：短期反弹高度有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - Short - term rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by alumina, the fundamental situation has not improved substantially [5]. 2.2 PVC - Short - term rebound height is limited. The high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. Although there are factors driving a phased rebound, the overall situation of high production and weak demand remains [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1观点综述 3.1.1烧碱 - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, the overall start - up is expected to increase slightly. - Demand: The alumina industry has a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand for caustic soda is difficult to expand significantly. Non - aluminum demand is at a rigid level and will face a slack season. Export orders are few, and the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is still weak. - View: Caustic soda follows the rebound of alumina in the short term, but the rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not cut production. Pay attention to the delivery pressure of the 01 contract in January. - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,280 yuan/ton. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, the short - term rebound is limited; for inter - period and inter - variety trading, there are no specific strategies [5]. 3.1.2 PVC - Supply: The high - output structure of PVC is gradually improving. The start - up this week has decreased, and the output is expected to increase slightly next week. In 2026, the maintenance efforts in spring and summer may exceed this year. - Demand: Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak, and the willingness of enterprises to stock up is low. Export demand is also difficult to increase significantly. - View: The valuation of PVC is at a low level, but the rebound space is limited. The high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the substantial large - scale maintenance plan on the supply side to appear before entering the market. - Valuation: The basis is strengthening, the month - to - month spread is weakening, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level, with a neutral - to - high valuation. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, conduct range operations with the upper pressure of the 05 contract at 4,850 - 4,900 yuan/ton and the lower support at 4,600 - 4,700 yuan/ton; for inter - period trading, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage; for inter - variety trading, there is no specific strategy [6]. 3.2烧碱价格及价差 - The main short - selling logic includes high supply and high inventory, the continuous existence of alumina production cut expectations, new production capacity in the next year, slow - down in export growth, and changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums and discounts. The main long - buying logic includes anti - deflation and anti - involution trends, large losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda and PVC, and the expansion of the export market due to the shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants [9]. - The basis of caustic soda 01 is weakening, and the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is also weakening [12]. - Although the export market still has support, it is also facing structural adjustment. The cumulative export volume of caustic soda from January to October 2025 is 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. It is expected that the annual export volume will exceed 4 million tons in 2025 [19]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia is declining, currently around $355 per dry ton. The export profit of caustic soda has certain fluctuations [21]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable, and the price difference between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda is declining. The price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is also declining, which is negative for caustic soda [27][30][32]. 3.3烧碱供应 - The market structure shows an increase in production and a decline in inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 442,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 39.57%. The capacity utilization ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 27.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [39][40][43]. - Attention should be paid to the significant reduction in maintenance after December. In 2025 and 2026, caustic soda production capacity will continue to be put into operation, with a capacity growth rate of over 3% [45][47]. - In December, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province has been reduced, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The price of liquid chlorine has not been significantly subsidized, and the cost support for caustic soda is also limited. The downstream consumption of chlorine, such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform, has different operating conditions and profit situations [48][52][54]. 3.4烧碱需求 - In 2025, the alumina production capacity has expanded significantly, with a new production capacity of 9.5 million tons expected. In 2026, the new production capacity may reach 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is currently facing a situation of declining start - up, rising inventory, and declining profits, and there is a production cut expectation. The low profit of alumina leads to cautious procurement of caustic soda by alumina plants, and the inventory of caustic soda is difficult to transfer smoothly downstream [66][68][70]. - The pulp industry is in a slack season, and the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The new production capacity of pulp is continuously being put into operation. The finished paper industry has a stable start - up. The viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries have a declining start - up. The water treatment industry has a declining start - up, and the output of the ternary precursor industry is declining [84][89][95]. 3.5 PVC价格及价差 - The main contract of PVC has changed, the basis is oscillating and weakening, and the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is oscillating and weakening [104]. 3.6 PVC供需 - The start - up of PVC has decreased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week is 77.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.39%. In 2025, 2.2 million tons of new PVC production capacity will be put into operation, and there will be no new production capacity in 2026 [108][109][114]. - The comprehensive profit of the PVC industry has reached a new low in recent years, and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises are in a loss situation. The production enterprises of PVC have slightly reduced their inventory, but the social inventory is at a high level. The terminal demand in the real estate industry has not significantly improved, the start - up of the PVC downstream industry has decreased overall, the export of PVC is expected to weaken, and the warehouse receipts have declined but are still at a high level [117][121][139].