动力煤产业链周度报告-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price centers of thermal coal at the pithead and ports are moving down, and the decline may be tightened due to market influence [3] - The domestic supply contraction of thermal coal has expanded, and it may enter the seasonal production - reduction period at the mine end [5] - The total global coal departure volume has increased month - on - month, with the departure volumes from Indonesia and Russia rebounding [15] - The total amount of coal drifting to China is relatively stable, and the port price of imported coal has declined [18] - The coal demand for power generation has decreased slightly month - on - month, and other demands provide weak support [25] - The demand for chemical coal is temporarily stable in the short term [31] - The total social power generation has decreased, and both thermal and hydropower generation have declined [38] - The utilization of wind and water energy has weakened month - on - month [41] - In November, the coal consumption for metallurgy and construction decreased, while the coal consumption for heating and other purposes increased rapidly [44] - The mine inventory of thermal coal has increased month - on - month, and the demand absorption capacity is limited [47] - The inventory at northern ports has increased, and the market demand for thermal coal at ports has slightly eased recently [50] - The short - term supply - demand structure of transport capacity is still in a loose pattern, and the outbound volume has rebounded from a low level [55] - The thermal coal freight index is fluctuating at a low level, and the upward support is limited [57] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - The price centers of thermal coal at the pithead and ports are moving down, and the decline may be tightened due to market influence [3] 3.2 Thermal Coal Supply - Domestic Supply: As of December 26, the weekly output of thermal coal from 462 domestic sample mines was about 36.428 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%, and the month - on - month change in capacity utilization decreased. The 462 sample mines involve a production capacity of 2.11 billion tons, accounting for about 65% of the total production capacity of national thermal coal mines. In November 2025, the total raw coal production was 426.793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The production in Shaanxi increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [5][7][8] - Global Supply: The total global coal departure volume has increased month - on - month, with the departure volumes from Indonesia and Russia rebounding [15] - Import to China: The total amount of coal drifting to China is relatively stable, and the port price of imported coal has declined. As of December 19, the main arrival volume of thermal coal this week was 10.6801 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 259,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.6964 million tons [18][21] 3.3 Thermal Coal Demand - Power Coal Demand: This week, the coal consumption for power generation decreased slightly month - on - month. The coal demand for construction, metallurgy, and chemical industries provides weak support. In the power sector, the average daily coal consumption of 25 provinces this week totaled 5.98 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons, and the average coal supply totaled 6.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons. The average daily coal consumption of eight coastal provinces this week was 2.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7,100 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 89,000 tons. The average daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces this week was 3.859 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 379,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 156,000 tons. The total social power generation rebounded month - on - month in November, with significant declines in the total thermal and hydropower generation, and a month - on - month increase in the power generation from wind, nuclear, and solar energy [30] - Chemical Coal Demand: The demand for chemical coal is temporarily stable in the short term [31] - Power Demand in Different Regions: In coastal eight - province power plants, the short - term inventory reduction rate has increased due to cooling. In inland 17 - province power plants, the inventory is high, and the coal consumption rate has slowed down [33][36] - Demand Substitution: The total social power generation has decreased, and both thermal and hydropower generation have declined. The utilization of wind and water energy has weakened month - on - month [38][41] - Total Demand: In November, the coal consumption for metallurgy and construction decreased, while the coal consumption for heating and other purposes increased rapidly [44] 3.4 Thermal Coal Inventory - Mine Inventory: As of December 26, the mine inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises was 3.037 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 351,000 tons [47] - Port Inventory: The inventory at northern ports has increased, and the market demand for thermal coal at ports has slightly eased recently [50] 3.5 Thermal Coal Transportation - Transport Capacity and Volume: The short - term supply - demand structure of transport capacity is still in a loose pattern, and the outbound volume has rebounded from a low level [55] - Freight Index: The thermal coal freight index is fluctuating at a low level, and the upward support is limited [57]