Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - Supply: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - Demand - Rigid demand: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - Substitute demand: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - Inventory: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - Valuation: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - Supply: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - Inventory: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - Demand - Synthetic rubber: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - ABS: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - SBS: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - Viewpoint: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - Capacity: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - Supply - side - Operating rate: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - Maintenance situation: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - Net import volume: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - Demand - side - Butadiene rubber: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - ABS: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - SBS: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - Inventory - side: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - Cost and profit: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - Import and export: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - Inventory: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]
泰君安期货·能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251228
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-28 09:19