华联期货甲醇周报：煤价下跌，甲醇成本端驱动偏空-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate drops to a low level. The import pressure will decrease in January next year, and the supply pressure will reduce. The operating rate of traditional downstream industries is at a low level, while the MTO operating rate is at a high level. Affected by winter seasonal factors, there is an expectation of a slight contraction in demand. During the cycle, the unloading is smooth, the import volume is high, and the port methanol inventory has rebounded to a high level. The methanol supply - demand situation is bearish. It is expected that methanol prices may mainly fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - demand Overview - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 40.67 tons, with an overall incremental expectation. The expected arrival volume of foreign ships remains high, the import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [11]. - Supply: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0635 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.86%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 466,200 tons, including 388,200 tons of visible and 78,000 tons of invisible. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 25,000 - 30,000 tons [11]. - Demand: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continue to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. Among traditional demands, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are expected to decrease [11]. - Industrial Chain Profits: The import profit remains at a loss of - 17 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 176 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is at a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1,003 yuan/ton [11]. - Coal Prices: The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend [11][13]. 3.2 Strategies - Unilateral and Options: Operate bearishly within the range. For options, sell straddle options [13]. - MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term): Short MA605. As of December 25, the price of MA605 is 2,148 yuan. The logic is that the import volume is high, the traditional demand is poor, and the port inventory is at a relatively high level. The operation suggestion is to operate bearishly [17]. - PP - 3MA Strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of December 25, the spread of the May contract is - 220 yuan. The logic is that PP will still be in the peak production period in 2026, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol. The new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the demand for methanol is resilient. However, recently, coal prices have fallen, and the short - term spread trend has high uncertainty. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or short on rallies [19]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Spot Price: As of December 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,145 yuan/ton [25]. - Basis: As of December 25, the basis relative to the May contract is - 17 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Production: Last week (December 19 - 25, 2025), the production of Chinese methanol was 2,072,175 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% [83]. - International Operating Rate and Imports: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 528,300 tons, including 498,300 tons of foreign ships (403,300 tons of visible and 95,000 tons of invisible) and 30,000 tons of domestic trade ships [91]. - New Capacity in 2025: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. - New Capacity in 2026: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95][125]. 3.5 Demand Side - Apparent Consumption: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - Methanol - to - Olefins Operating Rate and Production: The MTO operating rate is 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China have slightly decreased, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry continues to decline [105]. - Traditional Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rates of traditional downstream industries are relatively low [109]. - Downstream Purchasing Volume: Not specifically summarized in the text. - Production Enterprise Order Volume: As of December 24, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16% [123]. 3.6 Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28% [131]. - Port Inventory: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.89%. The port inventory has significantly increased, mainly in Jiangsu [134]. - Port Floating Storage: Not specifically summarized in the text.