华联期货碳酸锂周报：宜春矿端扰动不断-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from December 19 to December 26, 2025), the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 120,400 yuan/ton on December 26, a 16.89% increase from December 19. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 130,520 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.16%. The current position of the main - month contract is about 577,000 lots [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The operating rate of domestic lithium salt plants remained high, the new capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction continued to be released, and the new capacity was still ramping up. The import volume of overseas raw materials increased year - on - year, but there was a shipping cycle [11]. - The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. The demand in the energy storage field was strong. Although some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers started production line maintenance, the overall level was still high. The power battery entered the seasonal off - season, and the scheduling plan decreased month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers were generally cautious, and their purchases were mainly for just - in - time replenishment [11]. - The price of lithium concentrate was supported by the sharp rise in the lithium carbonate futures price and remained high, providing rigid support for the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes remained stable. Against the background of high lithium carbonate spot and futures prices, the profits of enterprises with self - owned mines and salt lakes were the most substantial, and the profits of processing enterprises that purchased raw materials externally also improved compared with the previous period. The overall industry profit remained at a relatively high level [11]. - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. Due to the high price, the downstream's willingness to receive goods weakened. The inventory of lithium salt plants decreased significantly, and most of the social inventory was transferred and concentrated in the trading sector. The futures warehouse receipt volume was at the level of 17,100 tons [11]. - Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in a stage of intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The optimistic expectation of energy storage demand and the continuous decline of industry inventory support the price. The enthusiasm of funds in the futures market is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of the futures price callback driving the sharp fluctuation of the spot market. The unilateral strategy can consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that starting from December 28, 2025, the company would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines as planned for about one month. This maintenance was expected to reduce the company's lithium iron phosphate output by 5,000 - 20,000 tons and have no significant impact on the company's production and operation [8]. - On December 24, relevant media reported that according to people close to CATL, the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information of the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County [8]. - On December 16, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel the mining licenses of 27 projects such as the Wuqiao porcelain stone mine in Gao'an City. The bureau had publicized the 27 mining licenses to be cancelled, and they would be officially cancelled after the 30 - working - day publicity period [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was experiencing a collective price increase. Many leading enterprises had sent clear price - increase notices to customers. A staff member of Longpan Technology said that there was indeed a price - increase trend in the industry, and the company was communicating with customers about the price increase [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was promoting anti - involution. The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association would issue a notice, suggesting that enterprises should use the industry's average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for quotation and not engage in low - price dumping below the cost line. The association would disclose the industry's average cost range monthly starting from this month to provide an authoritative regulatory basis for enterprise quotations [8]. 3.1.2 Week - ly Viewpoints - Market Review: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures price fluctuated downward but still had a weekly increase. The position of the main - month contract was about 577,000 lots [11]. - Supply: The output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Domestic lithium salt plants had a high operating rate, new salt - lake lithium extraction capacity was released, and overseas raw material imports increased year - on - year [11]. - Demand: The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. Energy storage demand was strong, while power battery demand entered the off - season. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [11]. - Cost, Profit, and Inventory: The price of lithium concentrate remained high, supporting the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes were stable, and industry profits were at a high level. The total social inventory continued to decline, and the futures warehouse receipt volume was 17,100 tons [11]. - Outlook: The market was in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". Attention should be paid to the risk of futures price callback affecting the spot market [11]. - Strategy: Consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3.2 Industry Pattern The report shows the lithium industry chain, including upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, lithium recycling), lithium salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide), materials (ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate), lithium batteries (power - type lithium batteries, capacity - type lithium batteries), and terminal consumption (new energy vehicles, two - wheeled vehicles, 3C digital products, energy storage, glass ceramics, etc.). It also provides the global supply and demand proportions of each link [16]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 130,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 19,120 yuan or 17.16% from the previous period. - The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate contract was 428,716 lots, a decrease of 500,247 lots or 53.85% from the previous period. - The position of the active lithium carbonate contract was 577,035 lots, a decrease of 91,794 lots or 13.72% from the previous period. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,861 lots, an increase of 2,350 lots or 15.15% from the previous period [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market The report provides the spot price seasonal chart and historical price chart of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,557 tons, a decrease of 1,039 tons or 0.94% from the previous period. - The market inventory was 73,706 tons, a decrease of 2,614 tons or 3.43% from the previous period. - The factory inventory was 17,990 tons, a decrease of 775 tons or 4.13% from the previous period. - The registered warehouse receipt volume was 17,861 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons or 15.15% from the previous period [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit The report provides charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Production, Capacity, and Import and Export The report provides charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as the net import volume of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [42]. 3.6.2 Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) In December 2025, multiple companies in different regions had new lithium carbonate production capacity projects, with a total new capacity of about 166,000 tons [43]. 3.6.3 Lithium Carbonate Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality, annual cumulative imports of lithium carbonate, and the monthly import seasonality from Argentina and Chile, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [45][46]. 3.6.4 Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials The report provides charts of the monthly production seasonality of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [55][57]. 3.6.5 Lithium Spodumene Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality of lithium spodumene from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as the monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [67][70]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Overall Demand The report provides charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new energy vehicles, penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and monthly production seasonality of power batteries, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [80][82]. 3.7.2 Power Batteries The report provides charts of the monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the installation - volume proportion of each vehicle type's power battery, and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [86][88]. 3.7.3 Production of Each Material The report provides charts of the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [96][98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995 to a certain period, including information on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different sources, and production of downstream materials, as well as inventory data [105].