Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and factors in 2026 are favorable for gold. Gold is expected to play an important role in different asset portfolios, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [1][38]. - The global stock markets generally rose in the first week after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on December 19. The so - called "spring rally" may have started early, and the window for portfolio adjustment and layout in the fourth quarter is narrowing. Attention should be paid to balancing the risk of missing out on opportunities, and any short - term correction constitutes a significant right - hand layout opportunity [1][39]. - The most elastic convertible bond targets are the equity - oriented ones in the core themes of the annual strategy, such as Dinglong and Yongxi Convertible Bonds. The relatively elastic targets are in three undervalued directions: AI edge (consumer electronics, automotive intelligence, embodied robots), upstream key resource - type materials, and power transmission and distribution equipment. [1][40]. - The report attaches more importance to demand than supply. It recommends sectors with obvious growth expectations on the demand side, and sectors with marginal improvement on the supply side may have difficulty forming sustainable medium - term allocation opportunities without significant improvement on the demand side [1][40]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, and others [1][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Overall Rise - From December 22 to December 26, the equity market overall rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88% to 3,963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.53% to 13,603.89 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90% to 3,243.88 points, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4,657.24 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 207.924 billion yuan to 1948.902 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.94% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 22 industries closed higher, with 14 industries rising more than 2%. Non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, and building materials led the gains, rising 6.43%, 6.00%, 5.37%, 4.96%, and 4.56% respectively [14]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise - From December 22 to December 26, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64% to 493.25 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries closed higher, with 7 industries rising more than 2%. National defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, computer, and electronics led the gains, rising 7.55%, 4.64%, 4.46%, 3.48%, and 3.27% respectively [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 80.058 billion yuan, a significant increase of 16.446 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 25.85%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Zai 22 Convertible Bond, Jiamei Convertible Bond, etc. About 76.79% of individual convertible bonds rose [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 41.60%, a decrease of 0.95 pct from the previous week. There were also changes in the conversion premium rate by price, parity, and industry [22][28]. - The conversion parity of 20 industries increased, with 12 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, textile and apparel, automotive, steel, and national defense and military industry led the gains [31]. 1.3 Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From December 22 to December 26, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets increased significantly, and the trading sentiment of the underlying stock market was better overall. However, the trading sentiment of the convertible bond market was better on some trading days [33]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend and play an important role in asset portfolios [1][38]. - The equity market's "spring rally" may have started early, and attention should be paid to balancing the risk of missing out on opportunities [1][39]. - The convertible bond strategy recommends certain equity - oriented and undervalued - sector targets, and provides the top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week [1][40].
转债建议关注平衡踏空风险
Soochow Securities·2025-12-28 10:33