不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险：镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The increase in market attention to nickel and stainless steel is due to news - related changes in Indonesia, including a proposed 250 million - ton nickel ore quota and the consideration of including associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system [1]. - The nickel price may experience wide - range fluctuations due to the game between the industry and capital. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesian nickel ore policies in the first quarter [2]. - Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand fundamental situation, with the cost support center shifting upward. The core contradiction accumulates in the raw material end, and its price trend depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs News Impact on Nickel and Stainless Steel - Quota Event: Indonesia may cut the nickel ore quota to 250 million tons in 2026. If implemented, it could turn the surplus expectation into a shortage and impact high inventories. The first quarter of 2026 is an important window to track policy implementation [1]. - Associated Minerals Event: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. The cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [2]. Market Conditions and Trading Suggestions - Nickel Price: The previous trading logic was based on surplus pressure and wet - process production expectations. Now, due to Indonesian news, the nickel price may fluctuate widely. In trading, options can be considered, and short - term attention can be paid to structural arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Stainless Steel: Its fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. The cost center has shifted upward due to raw material factors. It may oscillate in a range, and the price direction depends on Indonesian policies [4]. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons to 56,725 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons [5]. - New Energy: On December 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively, and the precursor inventory increased to 13.0 days [5]. - Nickel - Iron and Stainless Steel: On December 25, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month to 132,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel social total inventory decreased by 3.55% week - on - week [5]. Industry News - Multiple Indonesian mining - related events occurred, including the takeover of a mining area by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and changes in permit policies. There were also international trade - related news such as China's adjustment of import subsidies and possible US tariffs on China [6][7][8].