汇率升值叙事的三重纠偏：美联储降息≠人民币升值≠出口承压

Group 1: Core Narrative and Logic - The popular narrative suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, which in turn causes the renminbi to appreciate, potentially harming export competitiveness[1] - The logic of this narrative is questioned on two fronts: 1) Federal Reserve rate cuts do not necessarily equate to a weakening dollar; 2) Renminbi appreciation does not necessarily harm export competitiveness[1] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's policy rate adjustments and the dollar index is weak, with a monthly correlation coefficient of only 0.04 since October 1982[3] Group 2: Renminbi Exchange Rate Analysis - The renminbi's exchange rate is currently considered fairly valued, with deviations from the "value center" ranging from 0% to 2%[7] - The renminbi's appreciation since May has released some corporate foreign exchange positions, widening the potential volatility range of the exchange rate[1] - The exchange rate's future trajectory will depend on several factors, including valuation, policy direction, internal supply and demand, and external responses[11]