KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-12-28 10:44Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The value of layout in the high-end liquor sector is becoming evident, and the optimization of raw milk supply and demand is creating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from December 22 to December 26, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.5 percentage points [12][14] - The high-end liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment period due to slowing economic growth and insufficient consumer confidence, but there are signs of demand improvement compared to the second and third quarters [12] - The price strategy for premium liquor brands like Moutai is stabilizing, with recent prices in the range of 1500-1600 RMB, and significant price drops are not expected in the near future [12] - The raw milk supply-demand gap has slightly narrowed, with a short-term recovery in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, but long-term supply remains in surplus [4][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector shows layout value, and the raw milk supply-demand optimization is generating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with specific sub-sectors like health products and other foods showing relative strength [12][14] Market Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 0.6%, ranking 25th out of 28 sectors, with health products (+0.5%) and other foods (+0.0%) performing relatively better [12][14] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with full-fat milk powder auction prices down 18.7% year-on-year [20][21] Liquor Industry News - Prices for premium Moutai products have increased, reflecting strong market demand and limited supply [42] Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and West Oat Foods, among others, focusing on companies with strong performance stability and risk resilience [5][48]