20251228：棉花：震荡偏强，注意市场情绪变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton has rebounded due to a weaker US dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved weekly US cotton export data, but its upward momentum is limited, currently in a low - level consolidation. Domestic cotton prices are driven by market sentiment, with short - term expectations of a slightly bullish but limited - upside trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, and out - of - quota cotton import profits [1][2][18] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 63.75, reached a high of 64.81, a low of 63.48, and closed at 64.46, up 0.81 (1.27%). Volume was 52,219 lots, down 44,678 lots, and open interest was 180,943 lots, down 2,503 lots [6] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 14,045, reached a high of 14,700, a low of 14,010, and closed at 14,535, up 520 (3.71%). Volume was 1,747,852 lots, up 538,313 lots, and open interest was 903,860 lots, up 142,317 lots [6] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Opened at 20,050, reached a high of 20,720, a low of 20,045, and closed at 20,585, up 535 (2.67%). Volume was 60,104 lots, up 21,170 lots, and open interest was 23,202 lots, up 381 lots [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: A slight rebound due to favorable factors, but overall US cotton export sales are average, so it remains in a low - level consolidation [7] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% week - on - week increase and a 95% increase from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 3,400 tons. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 30,500 tons, a 32% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecasted total exports; the cumulative export shipments were 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the total annual contracts [7] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: CCI's procurement continues. The total inventory is 944,000 tons. As of December 23, the cumulative market volume this year was 2,006,000 tons, an increase of 272,000 tons from December 17 [8] - Brazil: Planting progress is slow. As of December 20, 2025/26 cotton planting was 16.9% complete, a 6.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 3 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 3.7 percentage points slower than the three - year average [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains moderate. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a 41.5% decrease from the previous month and a 61.9% decrease year - on - year [9] - Vietnam: Sporadic purchases of imported cotton. Transactions are mainly concentrated in certified cotton such as BCI and US Cotton Trust Protocol [9] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending December 26, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 66.9%, Vietnam's was 61.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Prices and Transactions: Domestic cotton spot prices rose significantly in the week of December 26. Spot fixed - price transactions were active, mainly by traders. Spinning mills' purchases were light. As of Friday, the fixed - price quotes for 31 - 41 grade double - 29 cotton with less than 3% impurity in northern and southern Xinjiang were mostly above 15,400 - 15,500 (gross weight). The low - basis price in Kashgar was CF05 + 800 - 900, and in northern Xinjiang, the basis was mostly above 1,000 [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of December 26, there were 4,853 registered warehouse receipts and 3,834 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 8,687 receipts, equivalent to 364,854 tons [12] - Spinning Mills and Cloth Mills: The confidence of pure - cotton yarn spinning mills has been boosted, with increased willingness of traders and downstream weavers to replenish stocks, but overall it remains mainly for rigid demand. High - count yarns are in better demand, while medium - and low - count yarns have slow sales and inventory backlogs. Some enterprises reported that year - end foreign trade orders were 30% lower than the same period last year. Pure - cotton yarn prices have followed cotton prices higher, with an expected further increase of 100 - 200 yuan. The inventory pressure of spinning mills is less than in previous years. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain a high startup rate, while inland spinning mills' startup rates continue to decline. The theoretical profit of Xinjiang spinning mills is about 250 yuan/ton, and the cash flow of inland spinning mills is about - 150 yuan/ton. The all - cotton grey cloth market is still divided, with some areas having a stocking market. Weaving mills' inventory is expected to decline slightly before the Spring Festival. Orders are mainly small and scattered, and the export market is mainly for inquiries, with few actual orders [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 4. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the short term, with attention to external market sentiment. Domestic cotton futures and spot prices continue to strengthen, and the basis remains firm. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly bullish but with limited upside. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis changes. It is advisable to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on the discussion of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 [18]