甲醇周度报告-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, next week, the expected high volume of foreign vessels arriving at ports may keep the import demand weak, and there is an expectation of further accumulation of port methanol inventory, increasing the near - end fundamental pressure on methanol. In the current macro environment with strong overall sentiment, methanol will fluctuate repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro factors [3][4]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. Currently, 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. On the downside, the full cost of coal - based methanol enterprises cannot effectively support the price for now. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of the coal price center in the fourth quarter, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol is gradually stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - Supply: From December 19 - 25, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,072,175 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0635 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 90.86%, both lower than this period [4]. - Demand: - Olefins: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continued to operate at reduced loads, and the average weekly industry start - up is expected to decline slightly. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, Shanxi Weihua may shut down next week, and overall capacity utilization may decline. For glacial acetic acid, with the resumption of some plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. For formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi plans to reduce its load, and some plants in Ningxia, Henan, and Shaanxi may shut down, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear maintenance plans for enterprises, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methane chlorides is expected to rise [4]. - Inventory: - As of 11:30 on December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a 3.28% increase. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a 12.16% decrease. - As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a 15.89% increase. The significant inventory accumulation mainly occurred in Jiangsu, with smooth unloading and 403,300 tons of visible foreign vessels counted. The提货 in Jiangsu along the Yangtze River weakened significantly due to the weakening inland market, contributing to the large - scale inventory accumulation. In Zhejiang, the inventory fluctuated slightly due to stable demand. In South China ports, the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly, while in Fujian, the inventory increased [4]. 3.2 Price and Spreads - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including those for basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis text is provided [7][11][16]. 3.3 Supply - Methanol Production and Capacity Utilization: The report provides charts showing the daily production and capacity utilization of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region [24]. - Methanol Production by Process: Charts display the weekly production of methanol by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, and natural gas) in China from 2018 to 2025 [26][27]. - Methanol Capacity Utilization by Region: Charts show the daily capacity utilization of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2025 [29][30]. - Methanol Import - Related: Charts present the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. - Methanol Cost and Profit: Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, and natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [38][44]. 3.4 Demand - Methanol Downstream Capacity Utilization: Charts display the daily capacity utilization of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2025 [48][49]. - Methanol Downstream Profits: Charts show the production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid, etc.) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [55][59]. - MTO and Traditional Downstream Procurement and Inventory: Charts present the procurement volume of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers, as well as the raw material inventory of traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [63][68][73]. 3.5 Inventory - Methanol Factory Inventory: Charts show the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions (East and Northwest) from 2018 to 2025 [78][79]. - Methanol Port Inventory: Charts present the weekly port inventory of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2025 [84][85].