投资策略周报：岁末年初多头势力聚集，抢跑“春季躁动”行情-20251228

Market Review - A-shares led global indices with major broad-based indices generally rising, particularly the CSI 500 and ChiNext, while the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight-day winning streak approaching 4000 points [1] - The market liquidity is abundant, with A-share trading volume continuing to expand, reaching over 2 trillion yuan on Friday, and the financing balance exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, setting a historical high [1] - In terms of style, small-cap and growth styles outperformed, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense, and electric equipment leading gains, while beauty care, social services, and banking sectors declined [1] Market Outlook - Multiple funds are rushing to capitalize on the "spring rally," with a focus on buying on dips. The uncertainty in overseas monetary policy is dissipating, and the upcoming Chinese New Year and "Two Sessions" are expected to support risk appetite [2] - The "spring rally" conditions are accumulating, with key factors including reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and catalysts to boost risk appetite such as domestic policies and external risk mitigation [2] - The latest risk premium for the CSI 300 is at the median level of the past decade, indicating reasonable A-share valuations, while the central bank emphasizes continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [2] Fund Flows - The net subscription of A500 ETFs has become one of the important sources of incremental funds for A-shares at year-end, with a cumulative net subscription of 90.8 billion yuan in December, the highest since April [3] - The top six A500 ETF products saw a net inflow of 97.2 billion yuan since December, reflecting accelerated inflow of institutional funds [3] Financing and Currency Trends - The financing balance of A-shares reached a historical high of 2.53 trillion yuan as of December 25, with a net buy of 72 billion yuan in financing funds since December, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [4] - The strong performance of the RMB is favorable for foreign capital inflow, with the offshore RMB briefly surpassing the 7.0 mark against the USD, reflecting market confidence in the Chinese economy [4] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Focus on growth themes benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, innovative drugs, and energy storage [5] - Pay attention to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" price increases, such as chemicals, energy metals, and new energy [5] - Look for potential catalytic opportunities in the consumer sector due to the deepening of consumption policies [5]