地产专题分析报告：季节效应下，新房成交延续回暖

New Housing Market - New housing sales area in 47 cities reached 5.566 million square meters, marking a weekly high since July, with a week-on-week increase of 28.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%[5] - The increase in new housing sales is attributed to year-end sales push by developers and the introduction of quality projects in key cities[2][5] - The policy adjustments in Beijing, including lowering the social security and tax requirements for non-residents, are expected to boost the new housing market[10][12] Second-Hand Housing Market - Second-hand housing transaction volume slightly decreased by 1.6% week-on-week and saw a year-on-year decline of 29.6%[7] - The decline in second-hand housing transactions is primarily due to the crowding-out effect from the active new housing market[7][12] - The recent policy changes in Beijing have led to an increase in second-hand housing transactions post-implementation[12] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected declines in housing prices, increased debt risks for real estate companies, and macroeconomic downturns exceeding expectations[3][13] - The current real estate market issues are seen as structural, with a shift in demand from investment to consumption, and a need to adjust public expectations regarding housing prices[12]