Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Industry and capital are in a game, with nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely. Stainless steel is constrained by fundamentals, and its direction depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [3][5][7]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and short - term supply is expected to be disrupted. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to short industrial silicon after a rebound, and polysilicon is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are strengthening. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter after the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [84][86][87]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will oscillate, and risks during the New Year's Day holiday should be avoided [101]. - Corn: Focus on the performance of the spot market. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation in northern ports, the inventory building of traders, and the amount of supply from the grass - roots level [114]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is in a low - level range consolidation. The domestic sugar market maintains a weak basis expectation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's production and relevant industrial policies, and domestic import policy changes [137][159]. - Cotton: ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in the short term. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation, but the upward space may be limited [167][178]. - Live Pigs: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The LH2601 futures contract may rise rapidly, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [182][183]. - Peanuts: Spot prices are stable, and futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the purchase strategies of large - scale oil mills [202]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Industry News: Indonesian government may cut nickel ore quotas to 2.5 billion tons in 2026 and include cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. The cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [3][4]. - Market Trend: Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to the game between industry and capital. Stainless steel is constrained by fundamentals, and its cost center has shifted upward [5][7]. - Inventory: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons. SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Movement: This week, the industrial silicon futures price closed at 8,880 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price closed at 58,955 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, with supply expected to decrease and demand remaining weak. Polysilicon supply and demand are both weak, with upstream inventories accumulating [30][31][33]. - Future Outlook: Industrial silicon is expected to have its price lifted by sentiment in the short term, but the upward space is limited. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Fluctuation: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices rose significantly. The 2601 contract closed at 127,800 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose to 111,900 yuan/ton [64]. - Supply and Demand: Overseas shipments are increasing, and short - term production elasticity is limited. Positive electrode factories are starting maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [65]. - Market Outlook: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are strengthening. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Previous Week's Logic: In December, palm oil production decreased by nearly 10%, and high - frequency export data was good. Soybean oil rebounded following palm oil [82][83]. - This Week's Logic: Palm oil production in December decreased by 8%, and exports increased by 2%. It may confirm the price bottom in the short term. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range [84][86]. - Market Outlook: Palm oil needs to wait for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil is waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [84][86][87]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Previous Week's Market: Last week, US soybean futures prices fluctuated, with the main 03 - month contract rising 1.16%. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly oscillating, and soybean No.1 futures prices rose slightly [97]. - Fundamentals: China's purchase of US soybeans is limited, and Brazilian soybean import costs have decreased. Domestic soybean meal trading volume has increased, and soybean No.1 prices are stable [97][99][100]. - Future Forecast: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will oscillate, and risks during the New Year's Day holiday should be avoided [101]. Corn - Market Review: Last week, corn spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices rebounded. Corn starch inventories increased [109][110][113]. - Market Outlook: CBOT corn prices rose, wheat prices fell, and imported corn auctions restarted. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market [111][112][114]. Sugar - Market Review: Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price rose 2.15%. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price rose 197 yuan/ton [135][136]. - Supply and Demand: In the 25/26 season, Brazil's sugar production increased by 450,000 tons, India's increased by 1.72 million tons, and Thailand's increased by 1.27 million tons [135]. - Market Outlook: The international sugar market is in a low - level range consolidation. The domestic sugar market maintains a weak basis expectation [137][159]. Cotton - Market Review: ICE cotton rebounded slightly, and domestic cotton prices rose. Cotton exports from the US improved, and India's CCI continued to purchase [161][166][167]. - Supply and Demand: New cotton has been on the market for more than three months, supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season. However, the market is not pessimistic about the annual demand in the 2025/26 season [162][178]. - Market Outlook: ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in the short term. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation, but the upward space may be limited [167][178]. Live Pigs - Market Review: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices oscillated strongly. Supply decreased, and demand was still in the peak season [180][181]. - Market Outlook: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The LH2601 futures contract may rise rapidly, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [182][183]. Peanuts - Market Review: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and oil mill开机率 increased [201]. - Market Outlook: Spot prices are stable, and futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the purchase strategies of large - scale oil mills [202].
镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-28 11:19