棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期价格反弹豆油：美豆企稳，豆油震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil may confirm a short - term bottom if Malaysia's December production drops to around 1.7 million tons. Currently, valuation is not low and the driving force is not strong, so short - term range trading is recommended [7][10]. - Soybean oil is expected to trade in a range temporarily. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the domestic soybean oil spread. It awaits the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after stabilization [9][10]. - Soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate next week. During the New Year's Day holiday, risks from the external market should be avoided [25]. - Corn futures prices rebounded last week. In the future, attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market, including the inventory accumulation in northern ports, the inventory building of traders, and the supply from the grassroots level [33][37]. - The international sugar market is expected to trade in a low - level range. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a weak basis. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's production and industrial policies, and domestic import policy changes [57][83]. - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger shock, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the impact of downstream profits and import profits on price upward momentum [84][101]. - The spot price of live pigs is expected to weakly fluctuate. In the futures market, attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread of the LH2601 contract and set stop - loss and take - profit points [105][106]. - The peanut spot market is expected to have light trading. The futures market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the purchase strategies of large oil mills [120]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil 3.1.1 Last Week's Situation - Palm oil: In December, the production decline was close to 10%, and high - frequency export data was good. The 05 contract rose 2.78% last week [5]. - Soybean oil: Lacking South American weather speculation, it mainly rebounded with palm oil, and the 05 contract rose 1.40% last week [6]. 3.1.2 This Week's Situation - Palm oil: MPOA data shows a December production decline of 8%, approaching a production level of 1.75 million tons. ITS data shows a 2% increase in exports in the first 25 days. It is likely to start the seasonal de - stocking process in December [7]. - Soybean oil: South American soybean prospects are positive, putting pressure on the US soybean market. In the first quarter of next year, domestic port soybean inventories will decline, supporting domestic soybean - related spot and near - month contracts [9]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean 3.2.1 Last Week's Situation - US soybean futures prices fluctuated with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly volatile, and soybean futures prices rose slightly [21]. - International soybean market: China's soybean purchases were limited, and the import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week [21]. - Domestic soybean meal spot: Volume,提货 volume, and basis increased slightly, while inventory was basically flat week - on - week and increased year - on - year. Soybean crushing volume decreased [22][23]. - Domestic soybean spot: Prices were stable with a slight upward trend. State reserve price increases for purchases had a positive impact, while state reserve sales restricted upward momentum [24]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Outlook - Both soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate. During the New Year's Day holiday, risks from the external market should be avoided [25]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Market Review - Spot market: Corn prices slightly declined last week. In North China, prices of some regions rose, while in Northeast China, prices were relatively stable [32]. - Futures market: Futures prices rebounded last week. The basis of the main contract weakened [33]. 3.3.2 Market Outlook - CBOT corn prices rose due to strong export sales and expected production cuts by the US Department of Agriculture [34]. - Wheat prices declined, and the auction of imported corn restarted. Corn starch inventory increased [35][36]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market, including inventory accumulation in northern ports, inventory building of traders, and supply from the grassroots level [37]. 3.4 Sugar 3.4.1 This Week's Market Review - International market: The US dollar index declined, and the price of New York raw sugar rose. Fund net long positions increased slightly. Brazil, India, and Thailand all had increases in sugar production [55]. - Domestic market: The spot price of Guangxi sugar groups rose, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar also rose. The basis of the main contract decreased significantly. The import volume of sugar and syrup changed [56]. 3.4.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - International market: It is expected to trade in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's production and industrial policies [57][83]. - Domestic market: It is expected to maintain a weak basis. Attention should be paid to domestic import policy changes [57][83]. 3.5 Cotton 3.5.1 Market Situation - ICE cotton rebounded due to a weaker US dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved US cotton weekly export data, but the upward momentum was limited [84]. - Domestic cotton market: Supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. However, with the expected increase in spinning capacity in 2026, the market is not pessimistic about the annual demand in 2025/26. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward driven by market sentiment [85]. 3.5.2 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger shock, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the impact of downstream profits and import profits on price upward momentum [101]. 3.6 Live Pigs 3.6.1 This Week's Market Review - Spot market: Pig prices were strong. Supply decreased due to enterprises reducing slaughter and farmers' strong reluctance to sell. Demand decreased but was still in the peak season [103]. - Futures market: Futures prices were strongly volatile. The basis of the LH2601 contract increased [104]. 3.6.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - Spot market: Prices are expected to weakly fluctuate. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a vacuum period, and supply pressure will increase [105]. - Futures market: Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread of the LH2601 contract and set stop - loss and take - profit points [106]. 3.7 Peanuts 3.7.1 Market Review - Spot market: Peanut prices were stable. Supply pressure increased, and demand from food processing enterprises and trading enterprises was weak [119]. - Futures market: Futures prices declined last week [119]. 3.7.2 Market Outlook - Spot market: High - quality peanuts in Henan are relatively resistant to price drops, while commodity peanuts are under pressure. The market is expected to have light trading [120]. - Futures market: It is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the purchase strategies of large oil mills [120].