几内亚矿石长单价格下跌，政策利好氧化铝底部反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's long - term bauxite contract prices have dropped, and policies are favorable for alumina to rebound from the bottom. Although the alumina industry is in an over - supply cycle with continuous inventory accumulation, due to previous price over - decline and the expected policy introduction, the price has rebounded from the bottom, and the market is expected to transition to a bottom - oscillation stage [1][2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic bauxite prices changed little last week. Main producing areas are promoting mining rectification, and domestic supply is hard to significantly improve in the short term. Guinea's large - scale mining companies' Q1 2026 long - term contract quotation is $66.5 per dry ton, a significant drop. Some companies have resumed production, and new arrivals of ore are 4.779 million tons [2][12] - Alumina: Last week, alumina spot prices declined. The northern comprehensive price dropped by 90 yuan/ton, the domestic weighted index by 63.9 yuan/ton, and the imported port price by 70 yuan/ton. The theoretical northern import loss is about 105 yuan/ton. Due to pollution, some Henan enterprises reduced production, with a total affected capacity of about 0.6 million tons. The national operating capacity decreased by 0.4 million tons to 95.5 million tons, with an operating rate of 83.3% [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, some electrolytic aluminum projects are in production, and the domestic operating capacity increased by 45,000 tons to 44.388 million tons. Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants increased production, and the overseas operating capacity increased by 110,000 tons to 29.771 million tons [14] - Inventory: As of December 25th, the national alumina inventory was 4.773 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons. Electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventory and alumina enterprise inventory both increased [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 18,970 tons to 160,829 tons. The alumina futures price rebounded significantly from the low level [15] 3.2 Key Event News Summary within the Week - On December 26th, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of alumina and copper smelting industries [16] - As of December 26th, the Australian alumina quotation was about $308 per ton, and the theoretical northern import loss was about 105 yuan/ton [16] - On December 17th, some expired and low - price Xinjiang warehouse receipts of alumina were cancelled, and some aluminum plants started to pick up goods from the delivery warehouse, with the possibility of further cancellations [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - Raw Materials and Cost: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, bauxite import country port shipments, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and power - coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][25][27] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio between electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [32][37][39] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/on - the - way inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][47][51]