A股策略周报20251228：新的主线浮出水面-20251228

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a continuous rise, indicating the gradual initiation of a year-end rally, with global risk assets recovering amid easing liquidity tightening expectations [3][12] - The market is shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of themes, including domestic demand, price increase chains, and new industrial themes like commercial aerospace [3][12] - The current market rally is characterized by industry rotation and the emergence of new investment themes for 2026, driven by the interplay between AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [3][12] Group 2 - Recent price increases across various industries have become a focal point, with raw material price hikes being a primary driver, leading to passive price increases in many sectors [4][17] - The effects of anti-involution policies are becoming evident, as some companies opt for voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order amid rising upstream costs and downstream price pressures [4][17] - The sustainability of price increases varies by sector, with strong demand in some areas like lithium battery and wafer manufacturing, while sectors with weaker demand, such as titanium dioxide, may face challenges in sustaining price hikes [4][24] Group 3 - A new cycle of RMB appreciation is emerging, primarily driven by the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with medium-term support from improved China-U.S. relations and resilient export performance [5][33] - Historical trends indicate that during RMB appreciation periods, companies with high overseas exposure often experience a temporary increase in sales margins, followed by a decline, suggesting a complex relationship between currency strength and export competitiveness [5][34] - The current RMB appreciation is expected to alleviate cost pressures from rising prices of commodities and integrated circuits, benefiting sectors such as communication equipment, environmental governance, and lithium batteries [5][40] Group 4 - The new investment themes for 2026 are beginning to manifest across commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, with a focus on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [6][12] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as equipment export chains with global comparative advantages, and consumer sectors benefiting from inbound recovery and rising household income [6][12]