钢矿周报：政策预期升温，钢矿震荡偏强-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market: Recently, steel mill profits have recovered, and the output of rebar has slightly increased from a low level. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down. In the short - term, the market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force for prices. However, boosted by the warming market atmosphere and the increasing expectation of supply - tightening policies, the futures market shows a low - level and relatively strong oscillation. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 3080 - 3160 [7]. - Iron ore market: In terms of the industry, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, but they are still high year - on - year, and port inventories continue to rise, indicating strong iron ore supply. On the demand side, as the iron ore output stabilizes after the recovery of steel mill profits, it supports the demand for raw materials, and steel mill inventories increase slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the confidence in winter stockpiling and replenishment has slightly increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to oscillate strongly. The iron ore 2605 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline. By variety, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a slight increase in steel mill inventory and a continuous decrease in social inventory; the factory and social inventories of hot - rolled coils and wire rods both decrease slightly; the factory inventory of cold - rolled products increases while the social inventory decreases; for medium - thick plates, the decrease in factory inventory is less than the increase in social inventory. As the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down [7]. - Supply: The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. - Demand: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens. In addition, the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, and it is expected that demand will further decline [7]. - Iron ore Supply: In the latest period (20251215 - 1221), the global iron ore shipment volume and domestic arrivals have decreased month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9]. - Iron ore Demand: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. Recently, steel mill profits have rebounded month - on - month, capacity utilization has increased, and molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month [9]. - Iron ore Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and steel mill inventories increase month - on - month [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the RB2605 contract is 3118 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract is 3283 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton; the basis of the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton [21]. - As of December 26, 2025, the RB05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 49 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 13 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai is - 13 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3 Demand Side - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens, and the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, so demand is expected to further decline [7]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline, but as the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down. By variety, the inventory changes vary [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons [9]. 3.5 Supply Side - The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - Supply: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9][148][165]. - Demand: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons [9]. - Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days [9].