黑色金属周报合集-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: With macro support and industry constraints, steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation. The black industry chain is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the slow destocking of hot - rolled coils restricts the overall rebound of steel prices [6][8]. - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, iron ore prices will oscillate at a high level. Although the black fundamentals lack directional drivers, the overall risk appetite of the market and the commodity market trends support the valuation of iron ore [83][85]. - Coking coal and coke: The supply - demand expectation continues to weaken, and the valuation drops again. Before the Spring Festival, the upward space is limited, mainly showing a weak rebound, and price fluctuations are mainly affected by the news [135][137]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: With weak support from demand, the futures prices will oscillate in a narrow range. Macro sentiment and weak - stable demand have led to a slight increase in the price center, but there is pressure on the upward space due to new starts and restarts on the supply side [223][225]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Rebar supply was 184.42 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.71 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.9 million tons. Demand was 202.7 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.01 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.9 million tons. Inventory was 434.3 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 34.5 million tons. Hot - rolled coil supply was 293.5 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.6 million tons. Demand was 307 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.3 million tons. Inventory was 377.2 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.5 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 70.1 million tons [7]. - Macro Environment: Overseas, there was an interest rate cut in December, releasing liquidity. Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti - involution" again, and the overall macro - environment was warm. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to optimize and upgrade traditional industries [8]. - Demand: For rebar, new - house sales remained at a low level, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand house sales were high, showing rigid demand. For hot - rolled coil, the production schedules of the home appliance and automobile industries were poor, and the demand peak season did not peak. After January 1, 2026, the new steel export regulations will be implemented, making stricter standards and restricting export [26][29][49][50]. - Profit: Rebar spot profit was 168 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 197 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot profit was - 16 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan/ton [43][63]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: Overseas shipments remained at a relatively high level, and the overall supply was still abundant. Rumors about Rio Tinto's attempt to change the pricing model in early next year had little marginal impact on prices [85]. - Demand: The pig iron output remained flat week - on - week, and the raw material inventory of steel mills rebounded from a low level, possibly driven by restocking [85]. - Contract Performance: The main 05 contract price oscillated downward, closing at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a position of 581,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 45,800 lots. The average daily trading volume was 227,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 42,500 lots [87]. - Spot Price: The recent increase in spot prices was relatively limited. For example, the price of PB powder was strong, and the price difference between Karara powder and PB powder narrowed to a new low [91][124]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Supply: Some domestic coal mines reduced production and carried out maintenance after completing their annual production tasks, and the production decreased significantly in the short term. The Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port continued to have high customs clearance, and the port inventory exceeded 3.8 million tons [135]. - Demand: The pig iron output remained low, and the winter - storage market was delayed. The supply - demand situation of coke remained weak, and there was still a possibility of a fourth round of price cuts [138]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased by 909,000 tons week - on - week, with inventory accumulation in all links. The coke total inventory increased by 144,000 tons week - on - week [138][140]. - Price: The price of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The main factors affecting the price were the game between long and short positions near the delivery date, the topic of "anti - involution" in the coal industry, and the expected tightening of imported coal [137]. 3.4 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Performance: This week, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillated in a narrow range, with a slight upward shift in the price center. The main factors were macro - sentiment and weak - stable performance on the demand side [225]. - Supply: Ferrosilicon production was 98,500 tons this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 percentage points. Silicomanganese production was 192,600 tons this week, with a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 36.78%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points [224][237][278]. - Demand: From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast - furnace operating rate and the actual pig iron output were relatively stable. The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese was weakly supported [225][247][296]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicomanganese sample enterprises increased, and the inventory of steel mills decreased except in East China. The inventory of ferrosilicon sample enterprises decreased, and the inventory of steel mills decreased except in East China [251][255][297][298].