生猪周报：供需宽松，猪价区间窄幅震荡-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, with pig prices fluctuating narrowly within a range. The overall supply - side pressure remains high, the progress of capacity reduction is slow, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, so pig prices lack the driving force for continuous upward movement. After a phased rebound, pig prices are expected to continue to be weakly adjusted. The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally ease. The domestic total pork consumption shows a steady downward trend, and the short - term spot market of live pigs may continue to be weakly volatile, while the futures market will decline weakly to repair the basis [10][13]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot was 11.44 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67%. The demand for curing and pickling has increased, but the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has not increased significantly, and the overall demand pull is limited. Although the scale enterprises' slaughter rhythm is normal, the market sentiment of bullishness has increased, and a small amount of second - fattening has entered the market, supporting the phased rebound of prices. However, the overall supply - side pressure remains high, the progress of capacity reduction is slow, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged [10][22]. - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. Although the capacity regulation has achieved initial results, the inventory of fertile sows is still in the green and reasonable area of capacity regulation, which does not mean the start of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. The production efficiency of the pig - breeding industry has increased significantly, and the cycle of capacity reduction has been continuously lengthened. It is expected that the lowest price point of this cycle will be in the first quarter of 2026 [10]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to grow until the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally ease. The domestic total pork consumption shows a steady downward trend. The short - term spot market of live pigs may continue to be weakly volatile, and the futures market will decline weakly to repair the basis. Although the traditional consumption demand in winter may boost the market, it is difficult to change the pattern of supply growth exceeding demand growth. In December, scale enterprises may accelerate the slaughter, increasing the supply pressure [13]. - Strategy: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the national live pig market is difficult to reverse in the short term. The main contract will fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000. For options, out - of - the - money put options can be sold [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot was 11.44 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67%. The demand for curing and pickling has increased, but the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has not increased significantly. The supply - side pressure remains high, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged [22]. - Spot - futures basis: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Futures spread: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Standard - fat price: The standard - fat spread this week was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg compared with last week, mainly due to the strengthening of the fat pig price dominated by seasonal demand [40]. - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets nationwide this week was 217.38 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40.87%. The current national piglet profit is about a loss of 50 yuan/head [45]. - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows still sells at a 60% - 80% discount. It follows the narrow - range adjustment of live pig prices. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust [48]. 3.3 Capacity - Inventory of fertile sows: In October 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. According to the statistics of 208 fixed - point sample enterprises by Mysteel Agricultural Products, in November, the inventory of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0294 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the inventory was 169,680, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78% and a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. It is expected that the inventory of fertile sows in China may still slightly decrease in December [53][57]. - Culling volume of fertile sows: In November, the culling volume of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms was 112,378, a month - on - month increase of 5.05% and a year - on - year increase of 14.63%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the culling volume was 11,605, a month - on - month increase of 1.38% and a year - on - year increase of 29.36%. It is expected that the culling of fertile sows may still increase in December [60]. 3.4 Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In November, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.0059 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the inventory was 1.5573 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year increase of 6.94%. It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs may increase month - on - month in December [68]. - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the slaughter volume was 515,100, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume of the breeding end may still increase in December [71]. - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: As the standard - fat spread widened this week, farmers' intention to slaughter standard pigs decreased, and the proportion of large - pig supply increased, but the overall slaughter volume was limited. The average weight of large - scale farms decreased slightly [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: In December 2025, as the peak season of curing and pickling approached, the temperature in the northern region began to drop, and the white - strip price was running at a relatively low level during the year. The terminal sales improved slightly, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, with an expected increase of 20% [83]. - Cold storage capacity rate of slaughtering enterprises: The cold storage capacity rate was about 18.31%. The consumption improved month - on - month, but slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in destocking frozen products. The overall frozen product dumping intensity was limited, and the inventory changed little. It is expected that the fresh - sales rate may continue to rise slightly in the near future [90]. - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: Affected by the winter solstice stocking last weekend, the enterprise operating rate increased, but after the winter solstice, the market demand declined, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Next week is the New Year's Day holiday, which may support the consumption end, and the weekly average operating rate will maintain a volatile upward trend. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the cold storage capacity rate increased slightly [91]. - Substitute price: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content 3.6 Cost and Profit - Pig - breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig - breeding industry narrowed slightly. The average loss per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode was 66.57 yuan, and the average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets was still 223.82 yuan. In the short term, the pig price is expected to continue to rebound next week, and the breeding profit may be slightly repaired, but the long - term profitability pressure will still continue [102]. - Slaughter gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Pig - grain ratio: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 4.97, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%. The pig price rose slightly after a decline, and the corn price was weakly volatile. The market is still in a loss state and is adjusted in the third - level early - warning range of excessive decline. It is expected that the domestic pig - grain ratio may continue to rise slightly next week [109].