Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Soda Ash: Recent supply and inventory pressure relief support the market, but the overall supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Supply and inventory are still at high levels. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to trade with a short bias on rebounds. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1120 - 1220 [8]. - Glass: The supply decreased slightly last week, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly. The continuous contraction of glass enterprise profits may lead to cold repairs in some production lines, which will support the market rebound. However, the positive impact of cold repairs is limited under high inventory. In the later stage, the downstream rush - to - work demand will weaken in the off - season, and the market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1010 - 1080 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - Soda Ash - Inventory: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16,400 tons or 1.13%. Some delivery warehouses saw a decrease in inventory, while others changed little [8]. - Supply: The weekly domestic soda ash production was 711,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 tons or 1.32%. Light soda ash production was 326,300 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 385,500 tons, both decreasing by 4,800 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance or short - term equipment shutdowns [8]. - Demand: The weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 77,260 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23 percentage points [8]. - Glass - Inventory: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [11]. - Supply: From December 19 - 25, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [11]. - Profit: From December 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; using coal - made gas was - 21.88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton; using petroleum coke was - 7.21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton [11]. - Demand: As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Soda Ash: Upstream includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. Soda ash (light/heavy) is in the middle, and downstream products include agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [14]. - Flat Glass: Upstream raw materials are quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials. Fuels include natural gas (40%), coal - made gas (24%), and petroleum coke (16%). Float glass and other types are in the middle, and downstream applications are mainly in real estate (75%), automotive (18%), and electronics and electrical (7%) [16]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets - Prices: As of December 26, 2025, the FG main contract closed at 1057, and the North China basis closed at - 47 yuan/ton; the SA main contract closed at 1200, and the North China basis closed at 100 yuan/ton [23][26]. - Contract Spreads: As of December 26, 2025, the FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 103 yuan/ton; the SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [30]. 3.4 Inventory - Glass: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. Inventory days were 26.5 days, unchanged from the previous period. Inventory changes in different regions varied, with South China decreasing by 3.36% week - on - week, Central China increasing by 2.85%, North China increasing by 3.93%, and East China decreasing by 3.06% [35][41][44]. - Soda Ash: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16,400 tons or 1.13%. Some delivery warehouses saw a decrease in inventory [47]. 3.5 Supply - Glass: From December 19 - 25, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. Profits of glass enterprises using different fuels all decreased [52][53]. - Soda Ash: As of December 25, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 711,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 tons or 1.32%. Light soda ash production was 326,300 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 385,500 tons, both decreasing by 4,800 tons week - on - week. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash increased by 13.94% week - on - week, and that of the combined - soda process (double - ton) increased by 50% week - on - week [60][61]. 3.6 Demand - Glass: As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Order changes varied in different regions [66]. - Soda Ash: As of December 25, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 77,260 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23 percentage points [81].
纯碱玻璃周报：基本面承压，玻碱反弹空间有限-20251228
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-12-28 11:30