鸡蛋周报：短期供需变动不大，蛋价窄幅震荡-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in 2025 shows significant supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory of laying hens, young age structure, slow old - hen culling, limited demand, and over - capacity throughout the year. Egg prices have bottomed out multiple times, and farmers are under great pressure and may accelerate the culling of old hens. In December, as the inventory of laying hens decreases and holiday stocking demand starts, the market is shifting from loose to tight - balance, but the upward space of egg prices is still restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption. Mid - to long - term capacity reduction will dominate the probability of market reversal [8][9] - The strategy is that the main contract continues to fluctuate widely at a low level, with the pressure level referring to 2980 - 3000; mid - term, long positions in far - month contracts can be arranged, and call options can be bought with a light position [9] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - The national egg spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly within the range this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from last week, a decline of 0.34%. As the egg price rises to the current level, the market trading has become cautious again, and the egg price may fall at the end of the month. In November 2025, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. It is expected that the inventory in December will still decline but remain at a high level in the past five - year average. The egg market is expected to shift from loose to tight - balance, and the egg price will be supported by fundamentals, but the upward space is restricted [8][9] - The strategy is to refer to the pressure level of 2980 - 3000 for the main contract, and arrange long positions in far - month contracts and buy call options with a light position in the mid - term [9] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The national egg spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from last week, a decline of 0.34%. The price increase has weakened, and there may be a decline at the end of the month [8][20] 3.3 Supply - side - Inventory of laying hens: In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory in December will still decline but remain at a high level in the past five - year average [8][33] - Chicken - chick replenishment: The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key regions this week was 2.71 yuan/feather, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10%. The market showed a small rebound, and the replenishment enthusiasm of some breeding units was stimulated, but the overall replenishment sentiment was still divided [38] - Culling of old hens: The egg price is weak, and the supply of old hens in November increased month - on - month. The culling enthusiasm of breeding units increased, and the market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price continued to be under pressure [40] 3.4 Demand - side - Egg demand shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in the first half of the year at the end of May, and the highest level in the year from September to mid - October. After that, the price declines and stabilizes from November to December [65] 3.5 Cost and Profit - Feed price: The cost of egg production is mainly affected by the prices of corn and soybean meal. In 2026, the annual average price of corn may slightly decrease, and the average price center of soybean meal may also decline slightly. Although the feed cost is expected to decrease by 1% - 2%, the overall cost of the industry is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin [71][75] - Breeding profit: This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. The profit was - 0.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56%. The breeding cost per chicken was 132.43 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%, and the breeding profit was 8.50 yuan per chicken, a month - on - month decrease of 38.66% [84]