华联期货周报：协会发声，强势震荡-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai tin prices rose first and then fell. On December 25, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 332,750 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis [13]. - In November, the production of refined tin was 15,490 tons, returning to normal levels both month - on - month and year - on - year. The cumulative domestic tin ore production from January to September was 56,500 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of production in Myanmar's mining sector has affected price ranges. In November, Indonesia's exports returned to normal, with an export volume of 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [13]. - In November, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in December, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. Recently, industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational and cautious [13]. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances [13]. - LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly on a weekly basis [13]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the semiconductor and automotive industries are generally on an upward trend. There is still high uncertainty overseas, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The futures price remains strong, but high prices are expected to suppress demand and stimulate supply. Industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational and cautious. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position, and those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The reference support level has been raised to around 313,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. In the later period, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and the verification of consumption data [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View and Strategy - Market Conditions: Shanghai tin prices rose first and then fell last week. On December 25, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 332,750 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis [13]. - Supply: In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal. The cumulative domestic tin ore production from January to September was 56,500 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. Myanmar's mining production resumption has affected price ranges. In November, Indonesia's refined tin exports were 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [13]. - Demand: In November, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that emerging sectors will maintain demand resilience in December, while some traditional sectors will adjust. Industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational [13]. - Cost and Profit: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are declining weakly. Profits will remain low [13]. - Inventory: LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly on a weekly basis [13]. - Strategy: Hold long positions with a light position, and those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The reference support level is around 313,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [13]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided other than the title. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided other than the title and related charts. 3.4 Inventory - As of December 24, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,331 tons, with a slight weekly increase. As of December 23, 2025, LME total inventory was 4,895 tons, with a slight weekly increase. As of December 19, 2025, the refined tin social inventory was 10,181 tons, with a slight weekly increase [30][34]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of December 18, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [39]. 3.6 Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In September, domestic tin ore production was 6,263.28 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [45]. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [50]. 3.7 Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the production of electronic computers was 29.028 million units, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease [57]. - In November 2025, China's PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 3.1% year - on - year increase; the production of mobile electronic communications was 142.35 million units, an 11.6% year - on - year decrease [62]. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 1.5026 million units, a 23.4% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a 5.6% year - on - year increase [67]. - In November 2025, China's washing machine production was 12.013 million units, a 5.5% year - on - year increase; the production of color televisions was 17.449 million units, a 5% year - on - year decrease [72]. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a 7.8% year - on - year increase; the production of integrated circuits was 43.9 million pieces, a 15.6% year - on - year increase [76]. 3.8 Import and Export In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [80]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [83]