Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows resilience, and the market generally expects that after the replacement of the Fed Chairman, a relatively loose monetary policy will be adopted, pushing up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The structural contradiction of supply falling short of demand between the copper mine supply end and the electrolytic copper smelting end is prominent, and the copper smelting end may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the global copper production growth rate will be limited next year. Although the traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for the largest proportion, the copper consumption in emerging fields such as new energy power generation is growing rapidly. The upgrade of global power grid and other infrastructure in the future may support copper demand, and the incremental copper demand in new energy power generation and other industries is promising. The Shanghai copper futures have broken through the 100,000 - yuan/ton mark, and the market is expected to remain strong around New Year's Day [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - Macro: The US economy shows resilience, with the real GDP in the third quarter growing by 4.3%, the fastest in two years. The market expects a more relaxed monetary policy after the change of the Fed Chairman [7]. - Supply: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/lb, significantly lower than that in 2025. In 2025, due to various disturbances, the annual mine - end production guidance has been revised down by over 500,000 tons, and the copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be basically the same as in 2024. The supply - demand contradiction between the copper mine supply end and the smelting end is prominent [7]. - Demand: The traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for about 28%. The copper consumption in new energy power generation and other emerging industries is growing rapidly. In 2024, the copper demand from clean energy reached 7.737 million tons, a 28.9% increase from 2021. The future infrastructure upgrade may support copper demand [7]. - Inventory: Due to the rise in copper prices affecting downstream procurement, the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have rebounded rapidly in the short term [7]. - Strategy: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents figures on domestic spot and futures prices, Shanghai flat - water copper premiums and discounts, LME copper prices, and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio, but no specific analysis content is provided [11][13] 3. Supply and Inventory - Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Discoveries: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability [20]. - Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution: In 2024, Chile accounted for 23% of global copper mine production, and China accounted for 45% of global refined copper production [23][25]. - Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Production: As of December 26, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $44.70/ton, and the spot price was $3,291/ton. The current spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production showed a certain trend [30]. - 2026 Global Newly Expanded and Interrupted Copper Mine Output Increment: The total incremental output in 2026 is expected to be 533,000 tons, but the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5%. It is estimated that the overseas new - added capacity from 2025 - 2026 will be 620,000 tons [32][33]. - Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. As of the 52nd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate was 680,000 tons [36]. - Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a supply shortage of 1,400 tons. In the same month, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [41]. - Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [43]. - Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Premium - Discount Difference: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative scrap copper imports were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of December 26, 2025, the premium - discount difference in the Guangdong market was 5,928 yuan/ton [47][48]. - International Visible Inventory: As of December 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 157,800 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached a new high in recent years [54][55]. - Domestic Inventory: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 - 2 million tons. As of December 25, 2025, the social inventory was 202,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low [59]. 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - Primary Processing Market: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [65][70]. - Terminal Market - Power: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [74]. - Terminal Market - Real Estate: From January to November, China's real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% [80]. - Terminal Market - Automobile: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.6%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 will reach 1.85 million vehicles [85][90]. - Terminal Market - Home Appliances: In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of household appliances was 408.2801 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% [94]. - Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power: As of November 2025, China's solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [98]. - Chinese Photovoltaic and Wind Power Newly - Added Copper Consumption and Global AI Copper Consumption Forecast: It is expected that the copper consumption of China's photovoltaic and wind power installations will decrease in 2025 and 2026. The global data center scale and copper consumption are expected to increase in 2025 and 2026 [100][101][102]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast: From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply and demand will have a continuous gap of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons respectively. The proportion of new energy consumption in total consumption is increasing [106]. - Industrial Chain Structure: No specific analysis content is provided [109]
铜周报：多重因素影响，铜价突破10万关口-20251228
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-12-28 11:27