镍周报：政策扰动，大幅反弹-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply with wide - range fluctuations at a low level. New policy disturbance risks remain, such as the reduction of new policy quotas in Indonesia's 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The release of Indonesia's MHP capacity suppresses prices. After the high - level of imported nickel shows some improvement, nickel inventories continue to increase. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory are at high levels. It is expected that nickel prices will experience more intense low - level fluctuations overall [7]. - In terms of strategy, short - term long - position trading is recommended for the main contract of Shanghai nickel. For options, lightly buy out - of - the - money call and put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel production, and Indonesia's nickel element exports [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Viewpoints and Strategies - Market Situation: Shanghai nickel had a sharp and volatile rebound at a low level last week. The RMB exchange rate is approaching the "7" mark. In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, with the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry increasing by 60.2% year - on - year. Indonesia may change its mining policy [7]. - Supply: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but there are still risks of new policy quota reduction in Indonesia's 2026 RKAB. China's nickel imports are large, remaining at a high level in November. In November, domestic ferronickel production was at a low level, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output in November increased slightly month - on - month. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level [7]. - Demand: In November, stainless - steel production declined slightly month - on - month, and it is expected to be restricted in December. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, but the absolute value has decreased. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials has increased significantly in recent months [7]. - Inventory: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, SHFE inventory increased month - on - month, and refined nickel social inventory increased slightly compared with last week [7]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - Nickel Ore: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with an import volume of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In October - November 2025, imports were 468,280 tons and 333,940 tons respectively, showing a continued month - on - month decline [19]. - Ferronickel: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In November 2025, the output was 157,400 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and still at a high level. In 2024, domestic ferronickel output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In November 2025, the output was 22,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level. In November 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 895,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decline, and the inventory was 22,500 tons, remaining stable [24][28]. - Refined Nickel: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level. In September - October 2025, the apparent consumption was 33,051.88 tons and 22,949.39 tons respectively. In November 2025, China's nickel imports were 233,000 tons, remaining at a high level, and exports were 13,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - Wet - process Intermediates: In November 2025, Indonesia's MHP output was 40,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [42]. - High - grade Nickel Matte: Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In October - November 2025, the output was 29,800 tons and 31,200 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned intermediate - product production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [47]. - Nickel Sulfate: In November 2025, the output was 30,735.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease. In October - November 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 22,055 tons and 31,817.9 tons respectively [51]. 3.6. Demand Side - Stainless - steel Demand: In November 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4931 million tons, showing a slight decline from the high level. The latest total social stainless - steel inventory was 992,960 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [57]. - Cathode Material Demand: From the perspective of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In November 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 83,200 tons, continuing to rebound [62]. 3.7. Inventory Side - Social and Bonded - area Inventory: As of December 19, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 55,988 tons, showing a slight increase compared with last week [69]. - Exchange Inventory: As of December 23, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of December 24, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 38,428 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [75].