宏观量化指数经济周报20251228：12月出口增速预计将小幅回落-20251228

Economic Indicators - The ECI supply index for December is at 49.93%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.86%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, unchanged from last week[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[6] Consumer and Investment Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, over 11.2 million vehicles were traded under the vehicle replacement policy, accounting for over 50% of total retail sales of passenger cars, with an expected annual growth rate of around 4%[8] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a decrease in sales decline due to improved transaction volumes in major cities since late December[8] - Infrastructure investment shows a slight recovery, with the operating rate of asphalt plants rising to 31.30%, up 3.70 percentage points from the previous week[28] Export and Trade Insights - December export growth is expected to weaken compared to November, with a projected slight positive growth for the fourth quarter overall[9] - Port cargo throughput in December has decreased slightly compared to November, influenced by high base effects and reduced demand due to preemptive exports[8] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.39%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating stable liquidity conditions as the central bank continues to manage liquidity through open market operations[11] - The central bank has conducted a net injection of over 1 trillion yuan through MLF in 2025, supporting ample liquidity in the market[13] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[52]