海外政策周聚焦：美联储换届博弈，为何潜在候选人迟迟未决？

Candidate Selection Process - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has become a focal point since the second half of 2025, with candidates undergoing multiple rounds of dynamic adjustments[1] - After Treasury Secretary Bessent withdrew in August, the candidate pool narrowed to three finalists: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and current board member Christopher Waller[1] - Hassett's probability of being selected peaked at 80% due to Trump's comments, but interest shifted towards Warsh, creating a competitive landscape with Hassett slightly leading[1] Monetary Policy Positions - All three candidates support interest rate cuts, but they differ significantly in their monetary policy stances[1] - Hassett advocates for aggressive rate cuts, citing a productivity revolution driven by AI as a reason to lower rates substantially[1] - Warsh views rate cuts as a correction to past aggressive monetary experiments and emphasizes a return to traditional policies, while Waller adopts a more moderate approach, suggesting a gradual move towards neutral rates[1] Market Reactions and Implications - Trump's strategy of delaying the announcement of the candidate aims to test market reactions and minimize financial volatility, with a potential announcement now expected in early 2026[2] - The market is likely to trade on the expectation of strong rate cut signals from the candidates, which could temporarily boost U.S. stocks and lower Treasury yields, putting pressure on the dollar index[2] - In the medium to long term, the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to stabilize asset prices, as new policies will need to align with core economic data rather than political demands[2] Economic Context - The U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, driven by a 3.5% increase in consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of the economy[35] - High inflation has led to increased consumer debt during the holiday season, with 37% of Americans reporting higher debt levels compared to the previous year[34]